GDP cries foul!
When the numbers emerged today I was shocked. After my initial amazement sunk in I started to wonder what was “really” going on here…
My eighth grade science teacher (yes 8th grade was a long time ago) managed to prove through statistics that I and everyone else in the class didn’t exist. Fishy indeed! If I didn’t exist according to statistics, but was still sitting in the classroom with the other student and the teacher himself then one of two things were completely incorrect. One might have been an illusion (think The Matrix)… Well, we know it was the stats because I’m sitting at my computer writing this entry.
So, if we can prove something doesn’t exist through statistics, which are really just a mathematical representation of data, can we manipulate our results through statistics?
I highly doubt that the GDP is actually positive. Take a look at shadowstats.com, which undoes as much of the governmental massaging of the numbers as possible. At the moment we are actually at about a 9% annualized rate of inflation, and GDP is negative. Wait, GDP was just shown to be 3.3% annualized… again what does this all mean?
We aren’t in a recession or at least that is the official figure. Of course we aren’t because to be in a recession requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Remember: We are in an election year! Interestingly according to shadowstats.com, we have had a negative GD since 2004.
I’m just skimming the surface and attempting to draw to your attention that what you see isn’t necessarily what you get. We are in a recession, and have been in a recession for quite some time now. However, the government wants us to believe that everything is okay, and that the economy will recover. My fear is that all this manipulation will lead to an even larger bust.
Look around you… are you seeing more for-sale signs of homes, more for-lease signs around town, people shopping less, more concerned about their jobs, etc…? These are not signs of economic growth, but fear.
Let’s make a prediction as these are always fun. If I’m right I get to stroke my ego a bit, and if I’m wrong… well I’m wrong.
The manipulation will continue as long as possible, but the market will prevail. Once it realizes the degree of major contraction in growth and productivity people’s sentiment will further shift as it is starting to now. Spending will dry up, credit won’t be lent, defaults will further, housing will keep falling, the US stock markets will free-fall, the dollar will resume its decline, and gold, silver, and commodities will eventually resume their bull market. Wow that is a mouthful. Might I be wrong…? Of course! If I could predict the future I would own an island and call it Gauntlett.
I’m going to go as far as to say that our markets are severely manipulated NOT by speculators, but by various government officials and policy. Going into the election with a perceived strong economy will give the incumbent’s party an edge that just might help them stay in office. We will know in November. After November the Fed won’t need to have such a loose monetary policy and might start to think about inflation and raise interest rates if the market doesn’t demand it sooner due to the risk of inflation to your savings and purchasing power. (Note: I didn’t say higher prices because what is really happening is your dollars are becoming worth less as more are put into circulation by the Fed.)