Financial Vagabond

Some See China’s Buying Spree on Commodities as Short-Lived – NYTimes.com.

With the advent of Central Banks printing their way out of this mess the probabilities continue to point toward inflation.  While the rate of expansion of the money supply has lessened it is no less continuing to rise.  Should the Fed decide to sell some of its assets I can only imagine a depression ensuing.  As some have said they are threading the needle between inflation and depression, but at some point I think the hole will close and we will be stuck on the side of inflation.

The rebound in commodity prices is staggering.  Many factors influence commodities, among them currency valuations, supply and demand, forecasted demands, hedges against currency devaluations, and inflation.  China plays a major role in the demand factor.  In a recent NY Times article, referenced above, they state that while China is stockpiling commodities production lags.

At least 90 large freighters full of iron ore are idling off Chinese ports, where they face waits of up to two weeks to unload because port storage operations are overflowing, chief executives of shipping companies said in interviews this week. Yet actual steel production from that iron ore is recovering much more slowly in China, and Chinese steel exports remain weak.

“There has been enormous stockpiling of all commodities” by China, and this cannot continue indefinitely, said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, a big shipping line based here.

China is getting ahead of it future needs, which makes sense, but how long can it continue?  I have no doubt in my mind that we will see higher prices for everything, while wages stagnate and job losses continue.  The question however is if commodity prices will continue to rise without a correction?  If I had a crystal ball I would say yes primarily due to our fiat money system, record low levels of food supplies, and energy stocks being depleted while further exploration and extraction projects are being put on hold.  Until we see higher energy prices they won’t be put into full swing, which take years to develop. Nothing goes in a straight line however, so a mild correction would be encouraging for buying on the dip.

Back to the demand situation…

Richard S. Elman, the chief executive of the Noble Group, Asia’s largest diversified commodities trading company, bounced up from the conference table in his office here when asked about freight rates during an interview on Tuesday morning. He walked over to his desk, dominated by three computer screens that partly obscure a perfect view of Hong Kong’s harbor, and quickly punched up on one screen a list of daily charter rates for large bulk carrier freighters.

The list showed ship owners charging $58,000 a day now but just $24,000 a day for charters next year or in 2011 — an indication that there will be more ships than cargoes in the years ahead, particularly with shipyards still finishing vessels ordered during the recent boom.

Pointing to the rates for the next two years, Mr. Elman said, “That’s the real market” for ships.