Category Archives: Announcement

Valuable Info!

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I’ve stumbled upon an extremly useful site… Really it goes beyond just useful, and if you are interested in Finance, Math, or Physics I recommend you check it out. Even if you aren’t and may know someone in school send them to this site. Mind you that without YouTube it would be much more difficult to implement such a site.

Okay, how did I discover this? Well, I must thank Gary North for pointing me to it. Without his continued efforts to find valuable resources and simplify complex matter I may have not discovered it for sometime.

Anyways, please check out Khan Academy. Salman Khan does an amazing job of simplifying potentially complex ideas. So far I’ve gone though some of the finance and banking videos. While I’ve understood many of the concepts presented I’ve really enjoyed the refresher and he has also managed to get me thinking from a different perspective.

Sometimes we find the material, but how it is presented makes all the difference. Have you ever been confounded by the Federal Reserve’s material? Sometimes I think they are speaking another language… How about a textbook or college professor? Mr. Khan is doing a service to society through his non-profit making all his content available free of charge. Again from what I’ve watched thus far I can’t recommend it enough.

-RtG

Congressional Budget Outlook :: CBO

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Hold your hats folks as here are some of the forecasts for 2009 (link):

  • GDP falling by 2.2%
  • Slow recovery in 2010
  • > 9% unemployment by 2010
  • Decline in inflation (hmmmm… if monetary policy says anything this will reverse or at least eventually destroy the dollar)
  • Continued decline in housing prices
  • Decline in real consumption of more than 1%
  • Indeterminate on the financial system

And the best of all

$1.2 trillion dollar budget deficit for 2009*

*That doesn’t include the proposed stimulus package
*That amounts to 8.3% of GDP

So, we have an economy in decline, and digging a deeper and deeper hole to climb out of.  What I really want to know is how are we going to pay for 1) a 1.2T dollar deficit, and 2) a large fiscal stimulus package of a indeterminate size.

Let’s see our foreign friends have been purchasing our debt, which enabled us to essentially live off of their productive labor.  China for example is seeing a marjor reduction in exports, its economy is contracting, and eventually it is going to have to decide if it is worth supporting the American lifestyle at their own expense.  Presently, everyone is so intertwined I think there is a fear that if one jumps the house of cards falls down and we all lose.  However, is it possible for say China to pull out of the house of cards with minimal damage?  Is there a way they can reduce their exposure to US debt, and not have their savings collapse?  This is something I’d really like to know.

Seems to me that if they slowly shift some of their dollar reserves into commodities and other currencies SLOWLY, especially when there is increased demand they will be able to lessen their exposure.  The US import market is tanking, and has been tanking.  With unemployment increasing Bloomberg people are going to have a smaller income and will be forces to save thus hurting exporting countries.  This isn’t a US phenomena alone as Europe and frankly the rest of the world is contracting simultaneously, while being fed a mouthful of credit from central banks to re-inflate the bubble.  Last I checked it is very difficult to inflate a popped bubble.

Let’s take the latest number from Taiwan Bloomberg.  Their exports dropped by a record 41.9%.  We all know that Taiwan exports electronics, which have been a major boon ever since the technological revolution, which also saw a major hiccuup in 2000-2003.  So, this is confirmation of a major exporting taking a major hit.  There will be ramifications for the Taiwanese economy.

I can’t imagine that after the dust settles the world’s economies will look the same.  The sea of money will shift to where is sees the most opportunity and in its movement will tear apart the economies of many.

Here are a few more headlines on Bloomberg alone that tell a um telling story:

Fed Revives Discussion of Inflation Target to Counter Risk of Price Slide

ECB Expanded Balance Sheet by 36 Percent Last Year to Revive Bank Lending

Apartment Rents Fall, Vacancies Rise to Four-Year High on U.S. Job Losses

Shopping Center Vacancies in U.S. Approach 10-Year High as Stores Fail

Procter & Gamble Fights to Refinance as U.S. Borrowings Reach $2 Trillion

U.S. Banks Will Need to Raise More Cash in 2009, Meredith Whitney Writes

I’ll leave it at that, but what I’m seeing is RECESSION coupled with the Fed trying to stave it off through any means necessary, which is now including outright purchases of securities on the open markets.  Again we have no savings and are either monetizing debt or borrowing it from somewhere.  To do this will be disastrous to the dollar and our reputation as a solid financial center of the world.  Sure there are plenty of other economies in dire situations, but in the end who will come out with the heads up high and who will come out still in the sand?

History in the Making

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This is going to be short and sweet… We’ve broken the lows from 2003. It is very possible that we go much lower from here. We may get a bounce, but there seems to be a major lack of buyers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap down tomorrow as all the people who weren’t watching the market today realize what happened and decide to sell first thing.

Frankly, we are now in uncharted territory. It seems as though we’ve corrected (in the US equity markets) the excesses from 2003 – Present, but that leave the bubble up to 2000 that was never allowed to correct due to the cheap money thrown around.

My fear is that we are only part way there. Remember in the movie Titanic when the ship started sinking. At first everything was calm and orderly. Eventually panic broke out as it started to go down and eventually broke in half. Have you seen panic yet? I sure haven’t. If this isn’t panic then imagine what is.

More soon.

The day of reckoning has arrived…

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As I write this the Nikkei is down 580.52 points to 7,880.36.  All of Asia is down across the board.  A sea of red you might say.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the European markets once they open.  I imagine if Asia is down so will be Europe.  None of the fundamentals have changed.

There are various people who are quite knowledgeable that see a reversal in the markets, but I just don’t see it.  If the dollar declines in value, which is on the horizon commodities will probably once again increase in value.  However, we are in a major contraction, with the severity of the recession increasing on a daily basis, which bodes ill for the equity markets.  

Toyota’s sales are down for the first time in seven years reports Bloomberg <article>.  We aren’t just seeing a slowdown in the USA, we are seeing a worldwide contraction.  A recent article in IBD (Investors Business Daily) showed workers outside a toy factory in China protesting for their overdue paychecks.  China the unstoppable growth machine is slowing drastically because demand is falling off a cliff for their exports.  People are consuming fewer items, and banks are hoarding cash.  The entire system is coming to a standstill.  

What amazes me is the rate at which this entire process of de-leveraging, credit constipation, and economic contraction is taking place.  It was only a year ago or so when banks started showing signs of cracking and the markets started their descent.  At every turn there have been reassurances that everything is okay, but it has all been a smoke screen.  I wonder if tomorrow will be the day that will never be forgotten.  

So far we have seen major market swings in the all the equity markets.  Speaking solely of the US markets they tend to go down about 7-8% on a really bad day, which is nothing compared to the 20+% in 1978 on Black Monday.  All in all this decline has been somewhat orderly until we hit the latest consolidation phase where the markets are still moving down, but primarily sideways.  

A beautiful triangle formed, which was recently broken if you follow the charts.  It formed in the Dow, Nasdaq, S&p500, and Russell 2000.  Many believe that the rebound from the 23rd (today) started the next leg up, but I think as many others do that we might (this is hopeful) see a bounce to the underside of the triangle and then a complete meltdown (not hopeful).  

For the worst credit crisis in history the markets really could continue down much further.  All the indicators indicate that the market is oversold and ripe for a bounce.  However, the same was said with the ascent from 1997-2007.  Indicators help with market sentiment and direction, but are no means the definitive measure of what is happening.  At times of extreme volatility and uncertainty indicators may need to be readjusted or ones perception of them need be readjusted.

Let’s say you are a trader and do quite well in makets that are trending either up or down.  However, the markets start consolidating and move sideways.  All of a sudden your gains start to be erroded by your losses.  Why?  How could this happen?  The adept trader would shift their trading style to accomodate the new trend, which is sideaways and no longer trending.  The faithful would keep trading as they would in a trending market, which at the end of the day loses them money.

What happened?  The faithful was unable to see that their system was broken given the new market conditions.  Now it works beautifully given certain macro conditions, but if you system isn’t modified when those conditions change then you are in for a world of hurt.

How many people alive today went through the Great Depression and crash of 1929?  I sure didn’t, and the few who were alive are quite old and few.  Unless you are a student of history, and able to visualize what really happened I think we all may be in for a major shock.  Panic and distaste for the markets has yet to set in.  We may be at act 2 of how many I don’t know.

End of day Friday

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The volatility over the last 20 minutes and still continuing is crazy.  At one point today we were down to 7884 then up to 8900.  That is over a 1000 point differential.  Then when we hit about 8030 at 2:55pm the market started to rally.  Over about 30 minutes we went almost straight up.  Very similar looking to the opening over the past couple days.  I have to wonder if there are forces at work trying their best to make this market close in positive territory prior to the three day weekend.

With 10 minutes of trading to go I just don’t it happening unless there is some major miracle (intervention).

SkyDiving without a Parachute

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People keep wondering when we will hit bottom, where is support, etc…  I’d say after the last couple days “what support”?  Panic YES, more PANIC YES, and so we go DOWN.  Perhaps we will get a rally, but the overall trend is down and has been down for about a year now.  The dollar is treading closely to a precipice as well.  Credit is frozen, which if this continues means shortages in supermarkets, shortages in everything that is purchased on credit.  What is bought on credit?  EVERYTHING  

Yes, I’m concerned… So, we have a choice.  Either we can freak out and panic and run around with our shorts at our ankles falling all over the place or we can take a deeeeep breath and think about what weand I can really do.  

Can we stop the market decline?   NO
Can we unfreeze the credit markets?  NO
Can we rescue failing banks? NO
Can we stop layoffs? NO

However, there are a few YES’s out there.  What are they you ask?  

Can we get a three month’s supply of food to have on hand?  YES
Can we hold Gold and Silver in case the dollar or the banking system collapses or goes on holiday?  YES
Can we better get to know those in our communities?  YES
Can we stop getting further in debt?  YES

So, eventhough our world may or may not look like is does presently there are things we can do to prepare for the what if scenario.  Really it is no different from preparing for a potential hurricane, tornado, flood, or earthquake.   If you live in an area with one of those potential natural disasters isn’t up to you to be ready for the unthinkable?  YES 

I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to wait for the National Guard to come in and save me.  It is up to us to be responsible, and prepared.

Might this all blow over?  Sure  And what if it doesn’t?  Then what?

-Trevor

Ron Paul clearly states the situation…

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Fox News did a ten minute interview with Ron Paul and actually gave him the time to clearly state what is going on.  If the anchors were actually listening I don’t know, and frankly they need to.  The present situation is dire and people are only barely starting to take it seriously.  Given that Bernake is a student of the Great Depression he thinks the only way out is government intervention through bailouts and inflation.  The issue with that is we have a problem: Excess has built up in the system and it needs to be corrected.  By easing the debt burden on the banks the problem doesn’t go away, but only gets pushed further out into time.  

According to Austrian Economics whenever a bubble forms due to excess credit it must be deflated.  During the deflation excess inventory is bought at cheap prices, and the economy then moves forward.  This allows the economy to go though a minor correction and then move on.  The mortages need to be sold off and housing prices need to come down.  Our fiat monetary system only survives on debt and credit, which we are finding out has its limits.  

Instead of letting the system correct the taxpayer might be on the hook for other people’s mistakes.  Why is it imperative that house prices go back up?  Let them readjust to a point where people can afford them.  We will survive, and in the short-term it might be rough.  The dollar is at the brink of destruction.  A bailout will necessarily ensure that the dollar will be dumped because nobody wants to hold worthless paper.  

Warning:  If you see interest rates rising and the dollar falling this is a sign that major players are getting out of the dollar.  This is cause for concern.

Bernake, Paulson, and Bush are selling this proposal as a way to avoid a catastrophe. A necessary evil that if not enacted immediately will be the downfall of the United States and its citizens will suffer. Bush in his address to the nation did comment on the credit problem, but then went for the jugular and instilled fear just as Bernake and Paulson have been doing. He said that he believed in the free-market, but tough times call for decisive action. If he truly believed in the free market the Fed would not exist, there wouldn’t be sugar tariffs and corn subsidies, and I could go on and on. If you believe that we went into Iraq because of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) then go ahead and believe him on this one.

I find it quite convenient that we have major swings in the stock market and then this proposal comes to light. The banking crisis isn’t something new. Its been going on for over a year, and why now must it be passed right before Congress goes to recess. Fear will induce irrationality and it is imperative that this bill does NOT pass. I would rather face major banks failing then have the government try to sort this out.

Watch this video it is right to the point!

A call to action :: Ron Paul

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I endorse no candidate for the upcoming election.  However, I recently read Ron Paul’s statement about the state of the potential bailout that may be voted on as early as tomorrow.  Given the urgency of that matter and clarity of prose I present it here.

Letter from Ron: Time is running out

September 24th, 2008 by Ron Paul

Dear Friends,

Whenever a Great Bipartisan Consensus is announced, and a compliant media assures everyone that the wondrous actions of our wise leaders are being taken for our own good, you can know with absolute certainty that disaster is about to strike.

The events of the past week are no exception.

The bailout package that is about to be rammed down Congress’ throat is not just economically foolish.  It is downright sinister.  It makes a mockery of our Constitution, which our leaders should never again bother pretending is still in effect.  It promises the American people a never-ending nightmare of ever-greater debt liabilities they will have to shoulder.  Two weeks ago, financial analyst Jim Rogers said the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made America more communist than China!  “This is welfare for the rich,” he said. “This is socialism for the rich. It’s bailing out the financiers, the banks, the Wall Streeters.”

That describes the current bailout package to a T.  And we’re being told it’s unavoidable.

The claim that the market caused all this is so staggeringly foolish that only politicians and the media could pretend to believe it.  But that has become the conventional wisdom, with the desired result that those responsible for the credit bubble and its predictable consequences – predictable, that is, to those who understand sound, Austrian economics – are being let off the hook.  The Federal Reserve System is actually positioning itself as the savior, rather than the culprit, in this mess!

•    The Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time.  That means $700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.

•    Financial institutions are “designated as financial agents of the Government.”  This is the New Deal to end all New Deals.

•    Then there’s this: “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.“  Translation: the Secretary can buy up whatever junk debt he wants to, burden the American people with it, and be subject to no one in the process.

There goes your country.

Even some so-called free-market economists are calling all this “sadly necessary.”  Sad, yes.  Necessary?  Don’t make me laugh.

Our one-party system is complicit in yet another crime against the American people.  The two major party candidates for president themselves initially indicated their strong support for bailouts of this kind – another example of the big choice we’re supposedly presented with this November: yes or yes.  Now, with a backlash brewing, they’re not quite sure what their views are.  A sad display, really.

Although the present bailout package is almost certainly not the end of the political atrocities we’ll witness in connection with the crisis, time is short.  Congress may vote as soon as tomorrow.  With a Rasmussen poll finding support for the bailout at an anemic seven percent, some members of Congress are afraid to vote for it.  Call them! Let them hear from you!  Tell them you will never vote for anyone who supports this atrocity.

The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom?  Do we care about responsibility and accountability?  Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for?  Do we care that average Americans are about to be looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government?  Do we care?

When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media?

Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be.

In liberty,

Ron Paul

P.S. All week long, Scott Horton’s excellent Antiwar Radio program, which I highly recommend, will devote its first hour (12:00-1:00pm ET) to the financial crisis. Today, my former economic adviser, Peter Schiff, will be on the program. We’ll stream these programs at theCampaign for Liberty website.  Listen in!

After the Bell Part (2) – Paulson

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Secretary Paulson just issued his press release and I gained absolutely no confidence in the current situation.  Actually I’m more concerned than before as he said that the “banking system is safe and sound“.  Will someone please tell me how the banking system is safe and sound when major institutions are failing?  Bank of America was just downgraded, which shouldn’t be surprising as Merrill (MER) isn’t in good shape.

So, Paulson’s main theme of his speech was that confidence and resilence in the economy is strong, and that they are working to maintain the stability of the markets.  He doesn’t take lightly putting the taxpayer on the hook for private institution’s mistakes or overindulgence in risk.  So, taking over Freddie and Fannie wasn’t putting the taxpayer on the hook.  Well, there wasn’t anything he could do about that because they were part of the hand he was dealt.  It was a congressional charter that mandated that takeover.  I see…

He mentioned that we needed major authorities to wind down major institutions such as Lehman (LEH).  I’m not really sure what that means, but to take a guess it means that other institutions are going to eat those about to fail.  Okay that makes sense, but it is starting to all look really fishy.  How many institutions are going to consolidate?  And which ones are going to survive and who chooses?  This is not how a free market works.

He also mentioned that additional regulations and authorities will be needed in the future.  More government regulations!  Yippie I can’t wait.  We’ve seen how well those work.

And last but not least there was absolutely no mention as to how we got here even though the question was asked numerous times.   Not once did he mention the loose monetary policies or the relaxing of required bank reserves or increasing of the GSE’s maximum loan size.  

If this isn’t a RED flag waiving in the wind saying get out I’m not sure what is.  Be ready for flows of money to start leaving the United States as people won’t want to hold dollars.  Initially, we are seeing a rush to safety in treasuries as their interest rate is falling, but if this continues people will flee to other currencies and hard assets.  Why hold a piece of paper that isn’t worth anything?  Once the confidence leaves the system it may be too late.