India’s new tax code?

This video reminds me of one of my college classes relating to Asia.  We discussed how China was leading the way with its foreign direct investments, and creating capitalistic free zones.  Unfortunately, we are seeing how that played out, but it was a good run and if they can figure out their water and pollution issues they will probably be quite successful.  Half of the quarter was dedicated to India.  Our professor was Indian and seemed so frustrated with India and the amount of bureaucracy and red tape.  To have anything done required stamps, signatures, and more stamps and signatures before a final approval.  It kind of reminds me of Obama’s health care proposal, and what it will do to free enterprise.

The first time I visited India we drove from Agra to Jaipur.  Now the road is four lanes, and paved.  However, when I went in 2005 it was a two lane road filled with scooters, camels, donkeys, cows, buses, cars, and I’m sure I’m missing a few things (many of these are still on the road in 2009).  At that time the road was under construction, which made the drive even more precarious not to mention we almost slammed head on into a bus going 60 Mph  (I was luckily asleep, and found out afterwords).

For the dividers and to have traffic change lanes they were using bricks.  At first I just couldn’t belief it, and then I sort of nodded my head and thought well it is India after all.  All along the journey there are small cones sticking up into the sky spouting smoke, and all around were bricks.  So, from a semi-practical standpoint I can understand, but imagine trying to move all these bricks when the time came.  No barricades to hopefully prevent being run over, but a small series of bricks.

I was just there in 2009 and some things have changed, but much is the same.  A lovely country in many respects, but very 3rd world at the same time.  Getting horrendously sick in Agra didn’t help matter nor did being at the hottest place on the planet.  However, what struck me was the construction of the underground.  They already have one, but it is being expanded at a rapid pace for the upcoming Commonwealth Games Delhi 2010.  All around the ground is being ripped open, but there  are dividers, there are areas you can’t go so it seems like a step up.  For the rest of the country I can’t speak.

Now we get to the big news.  I think it is big new because simplification of the tax code is no small feat.  Watch the following video.  Instead of raising taxes, India is proposing to drastically simplify its code.  No tax up to a certain point (in the video), a 10% tax on incomes above said level.

Without knowing all the details… what does this potentially mean?

Let’s start with a few basics about the government and taxes:

1) Governments don’t have an income  — I know someone will try to refute this, but the majority and I mean majority of income comes from two places.  Its tax base meaning you and me, and through inflation.  You know that thing that Ben Bernake is so fond of doing these days.  Right we aren’t experiencing drastic price inflation at the moment, but he is monetizing debt like crazy, which means printing money out of thin air and buying crap with it.

2) As a government provides more services it needs more cash.  How do they get that?   See #1

3) Government doesn’t like to reduce its tax income because that means it has to provide fewer “services”, subsidies, welfare programs, etc…  This makes getting elected more difficult, because people want to be provided for.

4) With a smaller government due to a reduced “income” there is less of a foothold on controlling its society.

5) Less control over its society means more free will to the people.

You may or may not agree with me about points 1-5, which is fine as I won’t take it personally.  What it does mean is that people will have more money in their pockets to utilize as they see fit.  Who wouldn’t want more of their hard earned cash to spend as they wish.

I imagine if India passes this reform, and it is what they say it is there will be a boom in India.  Business will flourish, people will come out of their shacks, and start producing on a grander scale.  For clarification when I say shacks I mean it literally.  There is a staggering amount of poor people in India, crippled, sick, and desperate.

As businesses grow due to increased retained earnings, which will be used as productive capital there will be an increased demand for employees.  Greater demand for work, wealth increases all around, and everyone’s living standard rises.

For the sake of the people of India if this proposal is what it might be I hope it passes.

So, take a couple minutes and watch this!

The day of reckoning has arrived…

 

As I write this the Nikkei is down 580.52 points to 7,880.36.  All of Asia is down across the board.  A sea of red you might say.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the European markets once they open.  I imagine if Asia is down so will be Europe.  None of the fundamentals have changed.

There are various people who are quite knowledgeable that see a reversal in the markets, but I just don’t see it.  If the dollar declines in value, which is on the horizon commodities will probably once again increase in value.  However, we are in a major contraction, with the severity of the recession increasing on a daily basis, which bodes ill for the equity markets.  

Toyota’s sales are down for the first time in seven years reports Bloomberg <article>.  We aren’t just seeing a slowdown in the USA, we are seeing a worldwide contraction.  A recent article in IBD (Investors Business Daily) showed workers outside a toy factory in China protesting for their overdue paychecks.  China the unstoppable growth machine is slowing drastically because demand is falling off a cliff for their exports.  People are consuming fewer items, and banks are hoarding cash.  The entire system is coming to a standstill.  

What amazes me is the rate at which this entire process of de-leveraging, credit constipation, and economic contraction is taking place.  It was only a year ago or so when banks started showing signs of cracking and the markets started their descent.  At every turn there have been reassurances that everything is okay, but it has all been a smoke screen.  I wonder if tomorrow will be the day that will never be forgotten.  

So far we have seen major market swings in the all the equity markets.  Speaking solely of the US markets they tend to go down about 7-8% on a really bad day, which is nothing compared to the 20+% in 1978 on Black Monday.  All in all this decline has been somewhat orderly until we hit the latest consolidation phase where the markets are still moving down, but primarily sideways.  

A beautiful triangle formed, which was recently broken if you follow the charts.  It formed in the Dow, Nasdaq, S&p500, and Russell 2000.  Many believe that the rebound from the 23rd (today) started the next leg up, but I think as many others do that we might (this is hopeful) see a bounce to the underside of the triangle and then a complete meltdown (not hopeful).  

For the worst credit crisis in history the markets really could continue down much further.  All the indicators indicate that the market is oversold and ripe for a bounce.  However, the same was said with the ascent from 1997-2007.  Indicators help with market sentiment and direction, but are no means the definitive measure of what is happening.  At times of extreme volatility and uncertainty indicators may need to be readjusted or ones perception of them need be readjusted.

Let’s say you are a trader and do quite well in makets that are trending either up or down.  However, the markets start consolidating and move sideways.  All of a sudden your gains start to be erroded by your losses.  Why?  How could this happen?  The adept trader would shift their trading style to accomodate the new trend, which is sideaways and no longer trending.  The faithful would keep trading as they would in a trending market, which at the end of the day loses them money.

What happened?  The faithful was unable to see that their system was broken given the new market conditions.  Now it works beautifully given certain macro conditions, but if you system isn’t modified when those conditions change then you are in for a world of hurt.

How many people alive today went through the Great Depression and crash of 1929?  I sure didn’t, and the few who were alive are quite old and few.  Unless you are a student of history, and able to visualize what really happened I think we all may be in for a major shock.  Panic and distaste for the markets has yet to set in.  We may be at act 2 of how many I don’t know.

Wednesday October 8, 2008

This may very well be an interesting day…. Asia is taking a major hit as we sleep or well we are about to sleep as is my case.  Here is the latest Bloomberg headline:

Asian Stocks Plunge on Credit Concern; Indonesia Halts Trading 

I’ve been very cautious about the markets continuing on their tumble down and am unfortunately not surprised that this is happening.  It seems that the world has reached panic mode and is fleeing paper, which also is another indicator about why gold is so difficult to find.  

We just may have reached that point where the markets enter freefall.  It is similar to watching a stampede running towards you.  You have a few choices:

  1. Get out of the way!
  2. Get run over!
  3. Run like a mad-man and go with the stampede.

I’ll go with #1 or #3 or perhaps a combination of both.  When there is panic nothing is rational.  Even if things aren’t really necessitating a major sell-off the herd mentality will cause a major sell off.  It is self-perpetuating, a feedback loop.  Very similar to hyper-inflation.  Once the shakeout occurs what is going to happen with all newly created money floating around that nobody wants to lend at the moment, coupled with peak oil, and fiat currencies worth not a whole lot… That’s the trillion dollar question.  Not good is all I can say, not good at all.  

Imagine losing most of you wealth to the market as did happen similarly in 1929-1932, then due to a massive increase in the money supply prices take off and unemployment rises.  Don’t be surprised if the next President resembles Roosevelt and the New Deal.  If that ends up being the case I’m even more concerned.  He did want to raise taxes to 100% beyond a minimum income. That will halt any growth in an economy because people have no incentive.

On the bright side the amount of panic and fear in the air could be considered a contrarian indicator.  Why not…. when there is blood in the streets BUY… oh but wait… HOW MUCH BLOOD??