Category Archives: Bailout

A bond bubble… Really?

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Bonds, bonds, bonds…  United States Government bonds ARE the safest investment in the world besides cash.  Right?  They are aren’t they?  I mean they are backed by the taxing power of the United States Government so they have to be.  Well, sure you will get your money back at a measly 2.x% these days.  Isn’t that below the rate of inflation you ask…  why yes it is.  T-bills are paying tenths of a percentage so you choose.  Besides stocks and commodites have cost many a small fortune so investing in bonds is a wise decision.  Right?

There is much talk about a bond bubble, and I’ve been watching bond prices and their rates take off recently and also have a nice correction.   Generally I watch $TNX, which is the 10-year government bond yield.  Remember bond yields move inversley to their prices.  So, if yields go down then prices go up and vice versa.

So, we have seen equity and commodity prices collapse, housing prices, and while that was occuring treasury bond prices have taken off.  This MUST be a bubble right?  Perhaps, but you have to take into account who buys and sells bonds.  We have the individual investor, which makes up a small group.  The major purchasers of bonds are large institutions and governments.  For institutions let’s look at the money market industry.  They must hold a number of bonds based on their funds requirements.  For governments they buy and sell bonds all the time.  They sell them to raise money and other governments or institutions buy them for a “safe” return.

As a last resort the Federal Reserve will purchase bonds directly, thus monetizing debt (PRINTING MONEY), thus keeping bond prices high and yields low. Therefore bonds aren’t really controlled by investors as we like to think, but much larger fish in the sea.

So, what might we see when the world loses faith in the bond markets?  Auctions will be devoid of foreign buyers signaling that foreign demand has dried up.  This will spark the necesitated increase in interst rate as an incentive for others to borrow.  Simultaneously we might see a flee from bonds as investors are concerned about their future safety.

If you look at the news you will see exports are way down from exporting countries, which means that importing coutries aren’t importing anywhere near previous levels.  Welcome to a major recession, yes there are grumblings of this being a depresssion.  I supose it depends on your viewpoint.  Now what happens when these net exporting countries decide to stop buying our debt because they have their own problems at home and have to use their saving?  They will no longer be purchasing our debt, which will make it more and more difficult for the USA to spend, and service existing debt.  Being that most of our debt is short term as the interest rate rises so do the debt servicing costs.  As these costs rise, tax income decreases then we are stuck with either printing more money (the short and easy “solution”), we cut back on gov’t services, or a combination of both.

Watch out for rising interest rates and a falling dollar.  So far we have neither, but once we do this will signal a shift from the US Dollar as secure to the US dollar as a high risk.  Expect other currencies in better situtations than us to see their currencies gain value, while the major winners will be commodities and gold.

Congressional Budget Outlook :: CBO

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Hold your hats folks as here are some of the forecasts for 2009 (link):

  • GDP falling by 2.2%
  • Slow recovery in 2010
  • > 9% unemployment by 2010
  • Decline in inflation (hmmmm… if monetary policy says anything this will reverse or at least eventually destroy the dollar)
  • Continued decline in housing prices
  • Decline in real consumption of more than 1%
  • Indeterminate on the financial system

And the best of all

$1.2 trillion dollar budget deficit for 2009*

*That doesn’t include the proposed stimulus package
*That amounts to 8.3% of GDP

So, we have an economy in decline, and digging a deeper and deeper hole to climb out of.  What I really want to know is how are we going to pay for 1) a 1.2T dollar deficit, and 2) a large fiscal stimulus package of a indeterminate size.

Let’s see our foreign friends have been purchasing our debt, which enabled us to essentially live off of their productive labor.  China for example is seeing a marjor reduction in exports, its economy is contracting, and eventually it is going to have to decide if it is worth supporting the American lifestyle at their own expense.  Presently, everyone is so intertwined I think there is a fear that if one jumps the house of cards falls down and we all lose.  However, is it possible for say China to pull out of the house of cards with minimal damage?  Is there a way they can reduce their exposure to US debt, and not have their savings collapse?  This is something I’d really like to know.

Seems to me that if they slowly shift some of their dollar reserves into commodities and other currencies SLOWLY, especially when there is increased demand they will be able to lessen their exposure.  The US import market is tanking, and has been tanking.  With unemployment increasing Bloomberg people are going to have a smaller income and will be forces to save thus hurting exporting countries.  This isn’t a US phenomena alone as Europe and frankly the rest of the world is contracting simultaneously, while being fed a mouthful of credit from central banks to re-inflate the bubble.  Last I checked it is very difficult to inflate a popped bubble.

Let’s take the latest number from Taiwan Bloomberg.  Their exports dropped by a record 41.9%.  We all know that Taiwan exports electronics, which have been a major boon ever since the technological revolution, which also saw a major hiccuup in 2000-2003.  So, this is confirmation of a major exporting taking a major hit.  There will be ramifications for the Taiwanese economy.

I can’t imagine that after the dust settles the world’s economies will look the same.  The sea of money will shift to where is sees the most opportunity and in its movement will tear apart the economies of many.

Here are a few more headlines on Bloomberg alone that tell a um telling story:

Fed Revives Discussion of Inflation Target to Counter Risk of Price Slide

ECB Expanded Balance Sheet by 36 Percent Last Year to Revive Bank Lending

Apartment Rents Fall, Vacancies Rise to Four-Year High on U.S. Job Losses

Shopping Center Vacancies in U.S. Approach 10-Year High as Stores Fail

Procter & Gamble Fights to Refinance as U.S. Borrowings Reach $2 Trillion

U.S. Banks Will Need to Raise More Cash in 2009, Meredith Whitney Writes

I’ll leave it at that, but what I’m seeing is RECESSION coupled with the Fed trying to stave it off through any means necessary, which is now including outright purchases of securities on the open markets.  Again we have no savings and are either monetizing debt or borrowing it from somewhere.  To do this will be disastrous to the dollar and our reputation as a solid financial center of the world.  Sure there are plenty of other economies in dire situations, but in the end who will come out with the heads up high and who will come out still in the sand?

All Calm on the Western Front

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Christmas is past, New Years on the horizon, hope for change lingers in the air like a slow moving mist.  2008 will go down in the history books.  Oh it was memorable, but like a lemon is bitter.  Collapse oh what collapse the economy is fine.  Bush reassured us that the fundamental of the economy are solid.  Head on over to my quotes page and you will see the stumbling follies.  How could so many miss the storm with its blackening clouds enveloping the world to unleash thunder and hail that would bring equities and commodities crashing down?

So, here we are awash in retail inventory priced to go, but to whom?  People are losing their jobs, being moved out of their houses, hoping not to foreclose or go into bankruptcy.  Silently they pray and hope things will get better.  They remind themselves that change is on the horizon, and we will be saved.  However, just as when we overextend ourselves with credit change will do the same, and at an enormous cost to the present and future generations.  How big a pit will be dug I don’t know, but I’d place a large wager that it will be quite large.

Like the eye of the hurricane all is calm in the eye, but the pre and post can be devastating… if you survive.  As we sit in the eye watching the clearing above, the clouds move by, the presents exchanged, and champagne ready to be uncorked.  As we go about our daily lives in the eye we want 2008 to go in the history books, and not to come back.  Oh I wish that were possible as it would be as sweet as honey.

As the eye passes the next front moves in.  The wind grows fierce, sheets of rain and hail pelt all and everything in its way.  Yes, I think the time is near.  Batton down your hatches, have your “preparedness kit” at hand, and be ready for 2009, it will be another year for the history books. While Subprime was the 2008 buzzword are you ready to learn all about Alt-A and Option ARMs?  Or what about oil exporting countries such as Russia who need oil to stay above $40.00 a barrel?  What happens when they sell their foreign debt?  Expect much higher interest rates.

Ahh but you say wait a minute everything will be okay as change is in the air.  The government will stimulate us out of this mess and we can continue on our merry way…  Perhaps, but I don’t concur.  Remember we are a debt laden economy with a very large trade imbalance funded by our exporting friends.  Sure we will “print” money, but I ask you at what cost?  To print money means to make more out of thin air.  To take a bit from you, me, and the rest of dollar holding persons is theft, but unseen theft.  Add that to more debt that we have no way to repay and I see a storm brewing so violent that everyone will be in shock, awe, and amazement at its velocity and ferocity.

Just remember with every crisis there is opportunity.

Reward the incompetent…

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Will someone please explain why those who take undue risks get the most support? I’m not behind on my mortgage payment, I pay my bills on time yet I’m not getting any governmental support.

Troubled Homeowners: article

To qualify, borrowers would have to be at least three months behind on their home loans and would have to owe 90 percent or more than the home is worth. Investors who do not occupy their homes would be excluded, as would borrowers who have filed for bankruptcy.

People that put 10% or fewer down are getting help on their mortgage. These are considered a riskier mortgage because the borrower has much less collateral in their homes and it make it much easier for them to walk away. Unless of course your parents come in and throw you some cash to stay afloat. Where did this cash come from? You and me the taxpayer.

Since when has the United States become a country where we reward the careless. The responsible are punished and have to pay for other people’s mistakes.

Here is the best part… look what they get!

Qualified borrowers would get help in several ways: The interest rate would be reduced so that they would not pay more than 38 percent of their gross income on housing expenses. Another option is for loans to be extended to 40 years from 30, and for some of the principal to be deferred, interest-free.

Imagine if you are a plumber who took out an ARM that is adjusting and you have a relatively minimal income. Your payments are going to be absurdly small. You put little to nothing down and are now getting your house for practically nothing.

Is this really for the homeowner? Remember that when you have a mortgage you don’t own the house the bank does. The only thing preventing them from taking it is a contract, the law, and their desire to have a stream of income. Two choices exist for them if you can’t pay. Take the house or reduce your payments.

If they knew there was no chance of a bailout they would have been much more prudent in their lending practices because they aren’t setup to become sellers of houses. However, the implicit knowledge that too large to fail companies are bailed out enables them to do reckless things that the taxpayer gets to pay for.

Since where has there been a problem with renting? Not everyone is going to own a home. Get over it. Foreclose and go rent. I don’t want to pay for your loan. You took on too much risk. Just because you think it can’t happen doesn’t mean it won’t. Yes, housing prices fell when everyone said they wouldn’t. Do you buy a car thinking that it will always appreciate? No… why because you understand that a car loses value. Generally house prices increase in value, but there have been times in history where they fell. Do you take out a loan that adjust to an unaffordable rate in 5 years if you won’t be able to pay it? NO

Wake-up America these bailouts are for the careless. These bailouts are for those who took on inordinate amounts of risk. ultimately the bailouts are for major industry and banks at our expense. Are you okay with this? I’m not.

Purgatory….

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Ever watched a sci-fi movie where the crew goes into stasis while they travel from one end of the galaxy to the other?  Ever contemplated Purgatory where heaven and hell meet?  

I feel as though this is a period of semi-consciousness awaiting judgement…  Last night I was catching up on some news online when I was watching the futures markets turning deeper and deeper shades of red.  The morning was locked limit down and then we had an immediate spike — DOWN.  However, the day is turning out to be mild in comparison to what may have happened.  

The reason I label this as purgatory is because I think we are either going to swiftly swing in one direction or the other.  Emotion is in control at the moment and perhaps irrational.  Once the herd stampedes watch out.  If people want cash watch out markets.  As I said in a earlier post we haven’t really seen an exodus or pure panic yet.  

The news from around the world is to be expected given the size of the credit contraction.  

I think we may see a rally, perhaps not today, but maybe next week as people see bargains.  News will continue to be increasingly gloomy, spreading a shadow around the world.  The contraction will not abate and people in a moment of fear and panic will sell.  Hedge funds will continue to implode sending equity prices down further.  Mutual funds will have to begin liquidating.  The dollar will roar ahead.  

Only problem is that we have never seen such a huge monetary expansion. Once banks decide to start lending again that money they are now hoarding and using to purchase other banks will flow into the system.  Bam!!@! huge credit expansion at a completely unsustainable rate, and thus hyperinflation.  Equities may rebound, but given the recession they will probably be somewhat stagnant as the new capital investment will take time to be realized.  Meanwhile, gold, oil, and food will goto the moon as the dollar plummets.  Interest rates will also soar as the reality of our debt burden takes hold alongside major inflation.  People will want to be compensated for holding a worthless and bankrupt currency.  

My only real complaint with this prognostication is strength in the dollar.  I’m having a hard time comprehending or even believing that this dollar rally will continue.  It is a flawed currency, and has no basis for strength.  Then again what fiat currency really has any value?

 

my2cents

The day of reckoning has arrived…

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As I write this the Nikkei is down 580.52 points to 7,880.36.  All of Asia is down across the board.  A sea of red you might say.  It will be interesting to see what happens with the European markets once they open.  I imagine if Asia is down so will be Europe.  None of the fundamentals have changed.

There are various people who are quite knowledgeable that see a reversal in the markets, but I just don’t see it.  If the dollar declines in value, which is on the horizon commodities will probably once again increase in value.  However, we are in a major contraction, with the severity of the recession increasing on a daily basis, which bodes ill for the equity markets.  

Toyota’s sales are down for the first time in seven years reports Bloomberg <article>.  We aren’t just seeing a slowdown in the USA, we are seeing a worldwide contraction.  A recent article in IBD (Investors Business Daily) showed workers outside a toy factory in China protesting for their overdue paychecks.  China the unstoppable growth machine is slowing drastically because demand is falling off a cliff for their exports.  People are consuming fewer items, and banks are hoarding cash.  The entire system is coming to a standstill.  

What amazes me is the rate at which this entire process of de-leveraging, credit constipation, and economic contraction is taking place.  It was only a year ago or so when banks started showing signs of cracking and the markets started their descent.  At every turn there have been reassurances that everything is okay, but it has all been a smoke screen.  I wonder if tomorrow will be the day that will never be forgotten.  

So far we have seen major market swings in the all the equity markets.  Speaking solely of the US markets they tend to go down about 7-8% on a really bad day, which is nothing compared to the 20+% in 1978 on Black Monday.  All in all this decline has been somewhat orderly until we hit the latest consolidation phase where the markets are still moving down, but primarily sideways.  

A beautiful triangle formed, which was recently broken if you follow the charts.  It formed in the Dow, Nasdaq, S&p500, and Russell 2000.  Many believe that the rebound from the 23rd (today) started the next leg up, but I think as many others do that we might (this is hopeful) see a bounce to the underside of the triangle and then a complete meltdown (not hopeful).  

For the worst credit crisis in history the markets really could continue down much further.  All the indicators indicate that the market is oversold and ripe for a bounce.  However, the same was said with the ascent from 1997-2007.  Indicators help with market sentiment and direction, but are no means the definitive measure of what is happening.  At times of extreme volatility and uncertainty indicators may need to be readjusted or ones perception of them need be readjusted.

Let’s say you are a trader and do quite well in makets that are trending either up or down.  However, the markets start consolidating and move sideways.  All of a sudden your gains start to be erroded by your losses.  Why?  How could this happen?  The adept trader would shift their trading style to accomodate the new trend, which is sideaways and no longer trending.  The faithful would keep trading as they would in a trending market, which at the end of the day loses them money.

What happened?  The faithful was unable to see that their system was broken given the new market conditions.  Now it works beautifully given certain macro conditions, but if you system isn’t modified when those conditions change then you are in for a world of hurt.

How many people alive today went through the Great Depression and crash of 1929?  I sure didn’t, and the few who were alive are quite old and few.  Unless you are a student of history, and able to visualize what really happened I think we all may be in for a major shock.  Panic and distaste for the markets has yet to set in.  We may be at act 2 of how many I don’t know.

Banks are lending — NOT

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The theory was beautiful (well in the abstract)…

Give troubled banks more credit and they will lend it out and the economy will stop its free-fall.  Now, that sounds like utopia to me.  Create credit and we will all be saved for unemployement, slowing production, decreased consumer spending, and rising interest rates.

HOLD ON… let’s put a toe back on the plane of reality…

Banks aren’t lending much more than before eventhough they are being handed gobs of cash.  Why wouldn’t banks lend out free money?

What if…

  1. there aren’t any borrowers worthy of getting loans? — Let’s say during a recession!  Oh right the economy slows WAY… DOWN.
  2. there are more troubled banks and unknowns on banks balance sheets.
  3. banks are holding the cash knowing full well that there is another storm on the horizon

I didn’t pull this out of thin air like the Fed does with money.  An article in the NY Times starts with

The banks aren’t lending. And despite what you have heard, they probably won’t start just yet.

Sorry Paulson your plan isn’t working.

“Our purpose is to increase confidence in our banks and increase the confidence of our banks, so that they will deploy, not hoard, their capital,” Mr. Paulson said in a statement Monday. “And we expect them to do so, as increased confidence will lead to increased lending. This increased lending will benefit the U.S. economy and the American people.

Of course, with a $250 billion injection into America’s biggest banks — not all of which were troubled — Mr. Paulson has a political sales job to do. And no requirements to lend were attached to the money. (Some banks may use the money to buy others.)

But Mr. Paulson is making a big assumption about confidence, because until the real economy recovers — which could take more than a year — lending to Main Street is unlikely to return rapidly to normal levels.

“It doesn’t matter how much Hank Paulson gives us,” said an influential senior official at a big bank that received money from the government, “no one is going to lend a nickel until the economy turns.” The official added: “Who are we going to lend money to?” before repeating an old saw about banking: “Only people who don’t need it.”

Again banks don’t want to lend into a very uncertain future.  They want confidence in the economy — there isn’t any and the opposite is occurring.  People are spending less as they become more concerned about the safety of their jobs.  Most Americans have no savings cushion to fall back on.

Roger Bootle and Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics in London wrote a sobering note on Monday about the cash infusions into European banks that may apply here as well. “We expect rising loan defaults and further asset write-offs over the next couple of years to practically wipe out the governments’ capital injections, leaving banks back at square one,” they said. “Given that banks will need to increase their capital in order to expand their lending book, these measures on their own are unlikely to prevent bank lending from stagnating.”

Wait a minute… all that money being put into the system to restore confidence and spur lending may just vanish?  So at the end of the day more banks fail, the economy continues to contract, available credit continues to contract, unemployment rises, and interest rates eventually rise.  This isn’t what Paulson sold to us with his bailout plan.  Were we duped?

Nah, the individuals responsible for the government’s actions are always in need of votes and making a horrible situation look not so bad or at least feasible to fix.  At the end of the day our failed bailouts will have a disastrous effect.  The consequences are a HUGE debt burden, a larger interest payment on that debt, the world losing confidence in the value of the dollar, and a prolonged recession probably followed by major inflation.  I’ve been singing this song for a while and it will take time to play out, but as you can see this is a VERY rocky road.

Another bailout, more credit… when will we learn?

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It seems that the tune to march to these days is credit o credit we need more credit.  Somehow somewhere we forgot quite quickly that credit got us into this mess.  If credit is expanding much faster than real economic growth the outcome will be instability in the economy.  That is like an individual taking on more debt while their income stays steady or worse is in decline.  At some point in the future the debt will become unmanageable.  Once debt is too great a burden that individual is going to have to either sell assets to pay off the debt, declare bankruptcy, increase their income, or default.  The one thing that makes the government lucky or so it seems is that they can increase “income” through inflating the money supply event hough it is really illusionary.  All they have done is take money from every taxpayer to service the ever growing debt burden.

I find it distressing that Bernake and Co. are talking about further fiscal stimulus to the tune of $150 billion dollars and Democrats want double that.  We are already over $1 trillion in debt for this year.  Where o where are we to find this money?  Perhaps a leprechaun will appear beneath the rainbow and we will be saved.  If the politicians and bureaucrats have their way this is exactly what will happen.  

American’s have no or very little savings to invest in capital goods.  We are laden in debt and attempting to service that debt.  If unemployment rises substantially then servicing that debt will become even more burdensome.  Another stimulus package will probably be used to payoff existing debt, which does nothing for stimulating growth.

So, what do we do…  Many have proposed various solutions.  

Why not reduce the size of the government for one. 
– Yes, people will lose their jobs.  However, with time they will find other jobs as that money can now be used for other things.

Reduce taxes, and the size of the tax code.
 —  Our tax code is way to complicated and confusing.  I would love to know the cumulative hours wasted on tax returns every year by companies and individuals.  Imagine if we had a flat tax of 10-15%…  get rid of tax incentives, credits, exemptions, etc…  Not everyone is going to be happy about it, but a reduction in the tax burden in actual numbers and time would enable people to use their money elsewhere and as they choose versus having someone decide for them where to best put it to use.   

Return our currency to one backed by a physical commodity — GOLD and SILVER
 — The government would hate this, but it would eliminate the major booms and busts and enable constant growth.  Money would again have a true value versus the value instilled by the gov’t.  Money’s value would be returned to the people and taken away from the money printers, and confiscators of our savings.

Bring our troops home
 — We don’t need to be the world’s police.  Occupying over 140 countries is absurd and very costly.  I agree that we need to have an army to defend the country, but it needs to be defensive and not offensive.  Our paws are in too many honey jars.  We are bound to piss off the bees, which we are continually doing and then blame them for getting upset at us.  Ironic don’t you think.

Remove all subsidies and tariffs
 — All they do is distort the market place and what people produce.  For example why do we have corn syrup in our soda, but in the rest of the world they use sugar?  Corn is highly subsidized, while sugar has many tariffs on it.  Corn Syrup is cheaper due to government policy.  Corn farmers love this, while it hurts all of us.  We pay for those subsidies, and also pay high sugar prices.

I’m going to leave it at that, but there are plenty more options.  People say that ignorance is bliss.  NO it isn’t bliss it is being LAZY.  Will you get out of a parking ticket or a speeding ticket if you claim ignorance?  Not unless you are really smooth with words.  

What happened to being responsible? If you take on too much debt then you have a problem.  American’s have a virus, and it is contagious.  We live beyond our means, and then when we get in trouble someone bails us out at the cost of everyone.  The one’s who really pay are the responsible ones who are living within their means.

Why Gold?

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I agree that we are probably going to see a continued decline in commodity prices especially PMs.  However, given the increases in the monetary supply I forsee this trend reversing.  When the trend reverses, which isn’t going to happen immediately because we are headed towards a major recession, with unemployment rising, and more likely interest rates as well, inflation will be severe.

The Money Supply graphs are frightening.  Once that money goes into the system I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see hyperinflation.   For all of our sakes I don’t want that to happen.

As for investing in PMs I think there are two types of people who purchase them.  The first is the speculator, and the other the long term purchaser regardless of price. (I’m leaving out purchasers for industry and jewelry).  As much as I don’t like to see the value in relation to fiat currency of my PMs decline my intent on owning them is for more of the oh shit situation.   Throughout time gold, and silver to a lesser degree have held up as a store of value.  They aren’t going to be worthless as can a paper currency backed by nothing. Politicians and those involved in the government don’t like PMs as they aren’t easily created.  Having a currency backed by a scarce resource means that they have to control spending as they can’t print money to pay for various expenditures.

So, why gold and silver?  What happens if the fiat currency fails?  All of a sudden you and I have a bunch of roman numerals in our bank accounts.  Sure we can go get paper currency, but it is better to use as heat.  If this happens chaos will ensue until another solution is created or we go back to a currency backed by PMs.  I doubt the latter case would occur as bureaucrats aren’t going to want that option. 

My other concern is war with Iran, which is looking more and more likely.  In this scenario gold and oil will skyrocket.  Oil will also be much harder to obtain and the government will probably institute a rationing scheme instead of letting the price rise.   I’d rather pay $50.00 a gallon for gas then not be able to get it or to have to wait in line for days.  I presume many of you don’t agree, but gas or no gas you pick!  Would I drive much NO… however, if I needed to go somewhere I could get the fuel I needed.   

Lastely, beyond Gold and Oil we all need food and water.  Don’t forget food.

 

-T 

Banks win with T.K.O!

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If I had to place a bet on who would win… The major banks or the taxpayer… The BANKS win!!  Hooray the institution is saved!  Round after round of talks end in someone getting bailed out or should I say supported or prevented from failing so the whole economy doesn’t come tumbling down.  The markets seems to be happy with the results of the weekend’s coordinated world-wide effort to support the financial industry.  The Dow is presently up 585 points and we are green across the boards.  

However, treasuries are losing ground quickly and Jim Rogers is shorting them.  I took that position earlier, but was too early and also got out too early.  Live and learn right?  I plan to reestablish that plan shortly.  Additionally, I don’t see how this is the “bottom” of the current crisis.  At every point along this decline since last October every time there is intervention the market rallies and then continues in is downward trajectory.  

I’m not watching CNBC, but I imagine everyone is talking about how last week was bottom and we are off to the races.  For a bottom to be in place we needed much more despair and hatred towards the markets.  Regardless of the long-term outlook (just wait for earnings season to really kick in) there is no point swimming up a waterfall.  Therefore I closed out a large position of ultra short index ETFs.  My bias is still short, but I’m not going to be surprised if we see an intermediate rally followed by the final shit storm of destruction.  Remember the fundamentals haven’t changed, only the fact that the world’s leaders are trying to hold things together to avoid a complete collapse.  This weekend only restored confidence to get people lending to each other again, and to prevent runs on the banks.

And alas it’s my 30th Birthday!  What a month to have a birthday eh!  I couldn’t have asked for a more excited, and hairbrained ride…