Category Archives: Random Musings

Social Mood :: Repost from Slope of Hope

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Based on my present emotional state, comments here, and the overall economy it seems that we are at a major juncture. This rally has been swift as we would expect from a Bear Market Rally. The community at SOH has grown, and continues to grow.

 

The chatter on the board is starting to seem as though there is increasing amount of fear or uncertainty in the air. The trend is obviously down, but in the short term anything can and will happen. At the end of the day we are responsible for our actions. If we follow like sheep then so be it, but we are responsible for taking such actions. Our trades are our own, and only that.

 

Economic conditions around the world continue to deteriorate, and with it social mood. I’m starting to sense people’s cortisol levels increasing as the clock keeps ticking. The media (which I tend to ignore) is chanting one thing, the inflation / deflation argument marches on, governments continue to bail out banks at the taxpayers peril, riots and protest are increasing, and with all of this comes social unrest.

 

Being that we are all living beings (most of us at least) we are connected to each other in unknown ways, and one is a collective level of awareness at least subconsciously about what is going on around us. While we may hope for the best and want things to improve, the facts say otherwise. While we may get a bounce to 800 on the SPX we may not… my Blue Light Special Crystal Ball broke a long time ago.

 

People want the markets to rise as a sign that things will get better, but show me what is getting better. We trade on TA here, which is supposed to ignore the fundamentals or at least not look at them too heavily. However, judging from the comments here today there is a social mood of uncertainty, fear, and restlessness.

 

I recommend that anyone feeling uneasy take a walk outside and think about what you are grateful for. We are living through extraordinary times. Hang in there and happy trading.

Twitter Updates for 2009-03-12

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  • $MA and $V are looking sickly today… perhaps this is a tell along with the Meridith Whitney article in the WSJ #
  • $V to fill the gap? #
  • Cumulative $TICK looks confused. Nothing like the strong uptrend from yesterday. #
  • $SPY holding below the VWAP… $TRIN is moving up while $TICK moving down… (gives me cause for concern about a push higher) #
  • $GS weakening… will it hold present levels? looks roomy until about 89 #
  • $BBBY nice retracement from low to prior resistance. #

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Twitter Updates for 2009-03-11

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  • spilt milk at this point, but I missed a great trade on the /es last night due to to tight a stop. #
  • I need to see some volume to be convinced that we push higher. #
  • long $BGU #
  • Stopped out $BGU #
  • Really… it is about time for a pullback unless everyone is overjoyed about all the “positive” news. #
  • Prior DTL on $SPX from Feb 9th High, Feb 26 High proving to be resistance #
  • This feels like taking Asprin after a hangover… doesn’t fix the problem, but makes you feel better. #
  • RT @alphatrends: I can see the $DJI window, but nothing has been changing #
  • RT @alphatrends: Its working #
  • RT @alphatrends: It works!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #
  • RT @alphatrends: Appreciate your market commentary, and taking the time to do it! #

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Twitter Updates for 2009-03-10

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Wrong Side of the Bed

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Prior to going to bed I set my stops accordingly, was looking for a small move and then to get out before the open. Once and a while I dabble in the E-Mini’s, which are leveraged contracts that mirror the S&P 500. Sure they can be risky, but that is why one manages risk through stops, targets, and appropriate trades when you have a perceived edge.

So what’s the issue? I’d love to blame it on the time change, but that was Sunday. Maybe I can blame it on my alarm? No, it went off and I turned it off.

By the time I woke up it was 7:30AM PST. Normally I’m up by 6:00AM for the market open, which gives me time to wake up before things get going.

Naturally I was stopped out by about 7:15AM. Had I woken up when my alarm went off I would have found my overnight position profitable instead of closed out for a small loss.

Waking up on the wrong side of the bed can be a determinant for how your day will go. All that is really happening is that you are framing your start of day with a negative outlook. While I’d like to remain upset it isn’t worth it. I made a mistake and had made a plan in case it didn’t go accordingly. Now I must do it all over again and realize it was a great learning lesson. In a way I’m thankful for the painful lesson.

So, if you are going to wake up on the wrong side of the bed make you can get back to the right side in one piece.