Tag Archives: inflation

Overextended…

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… is exactly where the market was back in March when the S&P 500 hit 666.  Everyone thought the world was coming unhinged, and well it was and still is.  However, not everything comes tumbling down instantly.

With every play there are acts, and at some point the climax.  Without the climax how can we have resolution?  They are conditions dependant upon eachother unless we are speaking of the experimental genre.  With our money supply and government expendatures into the stratosphere we may be in the experimental, however let’s stick to the traditional for our discussion.

As this drama plays out I think we will have the main plot divided by smaller and yet smaller sub-plots each with their own climax and resolution.

While the market tops and is due for a correction we are jumping for joy at watching green shoots emerge from the abyss.  The media and figureheads talk about these shoots sprouting from here and there, but I don’t seem them.  Withered shoots perhaps.

Let’s introduce the buildup to the climax, and considering the climax euphoric the buildup sets the stage for euphoria.  In our case hope.  Beyond oversold conditions that we reaached in March we also had hit a stage of dénouement (catastrophy). However, this was only a subplot as if it had been the true bottom we would not have seen a short rebound in prices that have taken us up over 35%.  We needed complete disgust with the markets and an unwillingness to jump back in, which we didn’t see.

Instead will we go from Climax (the present) to catastrophe and back again I imagine a few more times before this is over.  We are fairily resiliant beings and can stand being pushed, pulled, and battered a bit before we completely throw in the towel.

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We are now starting a push into anxiety as the green shoot euphoria wears off.

Where are we going?
If the past is able to predicate the future, and if we are playing out subplots within the overall plot that leaves us with a theme of euphoria, despondency, optimisim and so on.  With despondency we will need to see disguist, lack of conviction in the government, and a swearing off the the financial markets. We aren’t even close.
Meanwhile as we go through these girations, while the Alt-A mortgages readjust, and commercial real estate weakens I’m expecting to see price fluxuations, and gyrations that flow with human emotion.  After all with so many players the markets are more emotion driven than anything else.

If the markets weren’t emotion driven then how can we explain people buying equities when the P/E ratio of the S&P500 is over 100, or how technical traders use patterns to profit?  After all we humans tend to do the same thing over and over again.  History repeats whether we like it or not.  The Romans clipped gold coins to fund increasing government expenditures, and in the modern era we print. Nothing has changed except the means in which it is accomplished with the same outcome.

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Short-Term:
A recovery in the dollar based on nothing more than everyone else is hurting perhaps worse than us, and it is very oversold.  Bernake and co might pull-in some liquidity to lessen foreigner’s fear of a devaluing dollar to support our debt markets.  This however, will undoubetly cause a collapse in the equity markets, commodities, and precious metals, while the dollar will rally as will bonds.

Winners: The US Dollar, Bonds
Losers: Everything else — Note: I’m cautious in shorting commodities due to when the next scenario will hit.

Intermediate-Term:
As liquidity is reduced Bernake will realize if he hasn’t already that there is no way out and that we will never be able to repay our debt.  The only way out will be a default via inflation, but that will prove futile once inflation hits 20%.  Wages will not rise and people will protest.  A depression will follow.

Winners: Precious Metals, Raw Commodities, Real Estate
Losers: Everything else

Longer-Term:
We will survive, and I hope we will change our ways to more responsible Americans.  The case for responsibility is huge as it has gone by the way side.  Instead of takeing care of ourselves, we look to others to make our decisions, pay for our health-care, take care of us in retirement, and essentially wipe our asses.  Fiscal responsibility needs… needs to happen.  No longer can we live off of debt that has we have no way of repaying.  I’m sorry, but a hummer purchased via your HELOC adds no value to your income.  Hence it is a poor investment and you must increase your earnings in other areas (no, housing doesn’t go up forever).
And here is our reset.  The New American emerging from the ashes. This is a ways out in time so we will revisit it as the cycle ticks on.

A bond bubble… Really?

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Bonds, bonds, bonds…  United States Government bonds ARE the safest investment in the world besides cash.  Right?  They are aren’t they?  I mean they are backed by the taxing power of the United States Government so they have to be.  Well, sure you will get your money back at a measly 2.x% these days.  Isn’t that below the rate of inflation you ask…  why yes it is.  T-bills are paying tenths of a percentage so you choose.  Besides stocks and commodites have cost many a small fortune so investing in bonds is a wise decision.  Right?

There is much talk about a bond bubble, and I’ve been watching bond prices and their rates take off recently and also have a nice correction.   Generally I watch $TNX, which is the 10-year government bond yield.  Remember bond yields move inversley to their prices.  So, if yields go down then prices go up and vice versa.

So, we have seen equity and commodity prices collapse, housing prices, and while that was occuring treasury bond prices have taken off.  This MUST be a bubble right?  Perhaps, but you have to take into account who buys and sells bonds.  We have the individual investor, which makes up a small group.  The major purchasers of bonds are large institutions and governments.  For institutions let’s look at the money market industry.  They must hold a number of bonds based on their funds requirements.  For governments they buy and sell bonds all the time.  They sell them to raise money and other governments or institutions buy them for a “safe” return.

As a last resort the Federal Reserve will purchase bonds directly, thus monetizing debt (PRINTING MONEY), thus keeping bond prices high and yields low. Therefore bonds aren’t really controlled by investors as we like to think, but much larger fish in the sea.

So, what might we see when the world loses faith in the bond markets?  Auctions will be devoid of foreign buyers signaling that foreign demand has dried up.  This will spark the necesitated increase in interst rate as an incentive for others to borrow.  Simultaneously we might see a flee from bonds as investors are concerned about their future safety.

If you look at the news you will see exports are way down from exporting countries, which means that importing coutries aren’t importing anywhere near previous levels.  Welcome to a major recession, yes there are grumblings of this being a depresssion.  I supose it depends on your viewpoint.  Now what happens when these net exporting countries decide to stop buying our debt because they have their own problems at home and have to use their saving?  They will no longer be purchasing our debt, which will make it more and more difficult for the USA to spend, and service existing debt.  Being that most of our debt is short term as the interest rate rises so do the debt servicing costs.  As these costs rise, tax income decreases then we are stuck with either printing more money (the short and easy “solution”), we cut back on gov’t services, or a combination of both.

Watch out for rising interest rates and a falling dollar.  So far we have neither, but once we do this will signal a shift from the US Dollar as secure to the US dollar as a high risk.  Expect other currencies in better situtations than us to see their currencies gain value, while the major winners will be commodities and gold.

Congressional Budget Outlook :: CBO

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Hold your hats folks as here are some of the forecasts for 2009 (link):

  • GDP falling by 2.2%
  • Slow recovery in 2010
  • > 9% unemployment by 2010
  • Decline in inflation (hmmmm… if monetary policy says anything this will reverse or at least eventually destroy the dollar)
  • Continued decline in housing prices
  • Decline in real consumption of more than 1%
  • Indeterminate on the financial system

And the best of all

$1.2 trillion dollar budget deficit for 2009*

*That doesn’t include the proposed stimulus package
*That amounts to 8.3% of GDP

So, we have an economy in decline, and digging a deeper and deeper hole to climb out of.  What I really want to know is how are we going to pay for 1) a 1.2T dollar deficit, and 2) a large fiscal stimulus package of a indeterminate size.

Let’s see our foreign friends have been purchasing our debt, which enabled us to essentially live off of their productive labor.  China for example is seeing a marjor reduction in exports, its economy is contracting, and eventually it is going to have to decide if it is worth supporting the American lifestyle at their own expense.  Presently, everyone is so intertwined I think there is a fear that if one jumps the house of cards falls down and we all lose.  However, is it possible for say China to pull out of the house of cards with minimal damage?  Is there a way they can reduce their exposure to US debt, and not have their savings collapse?  This is something I’d really like to know.

Seems to me that if they slowly shift some of their dollar reserves into commodities and other currencies SLOWLY, especially when there is increased demand they will be able to lessen their exposure.  The US import market is tanking, and has been tanking.  With unemployment increasing Bloomberg people are going to have a smaller income and will be forces to save thus hurting exporting countries.  This isn’t a US phenomena alone as Europe and frankly the rest of the world is contracting simultaneously, while being fed a mouthful of credit from central banks to re-inflate the bubble.  Last I checked it is very difficult to inflate a popped bubble.

Let’s take the latest number from Taiwan Bloomberg.  Their exports dropped by a record 41.9%.  We all know that Taiwan exports electronics, which have been a major boon ever since the technological revolution, which also saw a major hiccuup in 2000-2003.  So, this is confirmation of a major exporting taking a major hit.  There will be ramifications for the Taiwanese economy.

I can’t imagine that after the dust settles the world’s economies will look the same.  The sea of money will shift to where is sees the most opportunity and in its movement will tear apart the economies of many.

Here are a few more headlines on Bloomberg alone that tell a um telling story:

Fed Revives Discussion of Inflation Target to Counter Risk of Price Slide

ECB Expanded Balance Sheet by 36 Percent Last Year to Revive Bank Lending

Apartment Rents Fall, Vacancies Rise to Four-Year High on U.S. Job Losses

Shopping Center Vacancies in U.S. Approach 10-Year High as Stores Fail

Procter & Gamble Fights to Refinance as U.S. Borrowings Reach $2 Trillion

U.S. Banks Will Need to Raise More Cash in 2009, Meredith Whitney Writes

I’ll leave it at that, but what I’m seeing is RECESSION coupled with the Fed trying to stave it off through any means necessary, which is now including outright purchases of securities on the open markets.  Again we have no savings and are either monetizing debt or borrowing it from somewhere.  To do this will be disastrous to the dollar and our reputation as a solid financial center of the world.  Sure there are plenty of other economies in dire situations, but in the end who will come out with the heads up high and who will come out still in the sand?

Withdrawal Symptoms

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If my emotional barometer is any indication of where people’s minds are at the moment then I can only label it as coming down or recovering from a major hangover. It is the Sunday afternoon after a big night out sipping on your bloody mary to ease the pain.

We have been living on credit and tons of it.  At some point it becomes unsustainable and the house of cards tumbles down.  

Getting back to my analogy, think of drinking a ton of alcohol or coffee.  You keep wanting more and more when you finally get to a point where your body is completely dependent.  Any reduction in the drug will cause mild to severe withdrawal symptoms, any increase doesn’t do anything. 

This is what happens with credit expansion.  Too much and everyone goes on a spending spree with all the cheap money.  Take away the cheap money and people stop spending, jobs vanish, incomes decrease, and the previously incurred debt can’t be paid off.

So, instead of going through withdrawal you decide to take a lesser amount of the drug to make your hangover go away or slightly abate. However, you are still hungover. This pattern will continue until either you are completely free of the drug or your tolerance is now much lower enabling you to start increasing the amount as it now has a new profound effect as it did when you first started.  

It seems to me that we are in the post-crash hangover stage, but we aren’t completely free from the addiction.  We have taken a bit of the drug to ease the suffering.  The more of the drug we took the more likely we are to repeat the cycle.  We still need the drug to continue, otherwise we are going to feel like crap.  Hence, we still have a ways to go before we can recover.

If all goes as planned we will have a new President tomorrow and no longer will have to listen to the political banter at least for a while.  One piece of the uncertainty puzzle will be put into place, and we can focus on other issues.

In a NY Times article:

“We don’t know if it’s the end of the bear market yet, but it looks as though the bear has taken a nap,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s equity research. “So investors are thinking, let’s enjoy a bit of a relief, both from the market’s lows and from the endless pre-election rhetoric.”

Other factors seemed to be playing into the rally as well, including a continuing round of coordinated interest rate cuts worldwide, the ongoing thaw in the credit markets, and the increasing resiliency of the markets to the daily drumbeat of bad economic news. The extreme volatility of recent weeks has calmed in recent days, though trading volume remained light.

Yes, the bear is taking a nap, but we are still very hungover and have taken a bit of the drug to help relieve the pain.  People haven’t completely capitulated and given up on equities.  They are hesitant yes, but still hopeful that things will turn around.

There is a major bear lurking around the corner and it isn’t just in the US.  They are giving birth around the world and China is no exception.  In a Financial Times article:

Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, warned that high growth was needed to maintain social stability as fresh evidence emerged on Monday that China’s economy was slowing quickly.

…

“We must be crystal-clear that without a certain pace of economic growth, there will be difficulties with employment, fiscal revenues and social development . . . and factors damaging social stability will grow,” he wrote in the magazine, Seeking Truth.

So, while equity markets recover mildly on noticeably low volume, bears are growling from afar.  Manufacturing is way down, consumer’s aren’t spending, banks still are reluctant to loan, major exporters are slowing.  I’d call this a worldwide slowdown of massive proportion.  We still have credit cards right?

What lies ahead…?

Recession, higher interest rates, massive inflation, higher commodity prices, continued decrease in housing, rising unemployment, and eventual devaluation of the United States dollar.  When will all of these things play out?  

My crystal ball has a few cracks, but for inflation to take hold we have to complete the current phase of de-leveraging and disinflation (which is bringing down prices).  Once this phase is complete all the newly created money will directly cause inflated prices.

Similarities to 1929

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This is a very pertinant watch if you are interested in the similarities of today to the 1929 crash. I keep looking at the charts and percentage changes from prior to 1929 till today. So, far we have almost retraced on the Dow 100% since the October 2002 low. If we cross that level of support I’m concerned that we won’t see another bottom until we hit about 1000 or 500 on the Dow.

Since about 1982 the Dow has taken off with only three decent corrections in 1987, 2002, and the one playing out today. I realize that we have to look at the Dow adjusted for inflation as that is implicit in the numbers, but all I’m trying to get across is that the bottom might be farther away than any of us can imagine.

Anyways, enough for now… Watch the video if you haven’t already.

Another bailout, more credit… when will we learn?

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It seems that the tune to march to these days is credit o credit we need more credit.  Somehow somewhere we forgot quite quickly that credit got us into this mess.  If credit is expanding much faster than real economic growth the outcome will be instability in the economy.  That is like an individual taking on more debt while their income stays steady or worse is in decline.  At some point in the future the debt will become unmanageable.  Once debt is too great a burden that individual is going to have to either sell assets to pay off the debt, declare bankruptcy, increase their income, or default.  The one thing that makes the government lucky or so it seems is that they can increase “income” through inflating the money supply event hough it is really illusionary.  All they have done is take money from every taxpayer to service the ever growing debt burden.

I find it distressing that Bernake and Co. are talking about further fiscal stimulus to the tune of $150 billion dollars and Democrats want double that.  We are already over $1 trillion in debt for this year.  Where o where are we to find this money?  Perhaps a leprechaun will appear beneath the rainbow and we will be saved.  If the politicians and bureaucrats have their way this is exactly what will happen.  

American’s have no or very little savings to invest in capital goods.  We are laden in debt and attempting to service that debt.  If unemployment rises substantially then servicing that debt will become even more burdensome.  Another stimulus package will probably be used to payoff existing debt, which does nothing for stimulating growth.

So, what do we do…  Many have proposed various solutions.  

Why not reduce the size of the government for one. 
– Yes, people will lose their jobs.  However, with time they will find other jobs as that money can now be used for other things.

Reduce taxes, and the size of the tax code.
 —  Our tax code is way to complicated and confusing.  I would love to know the cumulative hours wasted on tax returns every year by companies and individuals.  Imagine if we had a flat tax of 10-15%…  get rid of tax incentives, credits, exemptions, etc…  Not everyone is going to be happy about it, but a reduction in the tax burden in actual numbers and time would enable people to use their money elsewhere and as they choose versus having someone decide for them where to best put it to use.   

Return our currency to one backed by a physical commodity — GOLD and SILVER
 — The government would hate this, but it would eliminate the major booms and busts and enable constant growth.  Money would again have a true value versus the value instilled by the gov’t.  Money’s value would be returned to the people and taken away from the money printers, and confiscators of our savings.

Bring our troops home
 — We don’t need to be the world’s police.  Occupying over 140 countries is absurd and very costly.  I agree that we need to have an army to defend the country, but it needs to be defensive and not offensive.  Our paws are in too many honey jars.  We are bound to piss off the bees, which we are continually doing and then blame them for getting upset at us.  Ironic don’t you think.

Remove all subsidies and tariffs
 — All they do is distort the market place and what people produce.  For example why do we have corn syrup in our soda, but in the rest of the world they use sugar?  Corn is highly subsidized, while sugar has many tariffs on it.  Corn Syrup is cheaper due to government policy.  Corn farmers love this, while it hurts all of us.  We pay for those subsidies, and also pay high sugar prices.

I’m going to leave it at that, but there are plenty more options.  People say that ignorance is bliss.  NO it isn’t bliss it is being LAZY.  Will you get out of a parking ticket or a speeding ticket if you claim ignorance?  Not unless you are really smooth with words.  

What happened to being responsible? If you take on too much debt then you have a problem.  American’s have a virus, and it is contagious.  We live beyond our means, and then when we get in trouble someone bails us out at the cost of everyone.  The one’s who really pay are the responsible ones who are living within their means.

The US Dollar gaining? What?

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Hyperinflation, inflation, deflation, depression, recession, stagflation… well which is it? I have no clue, but there is a massive monetary inflation occurring, and a looming recession.  Hmmm so does this mean a inflationary depression?  Yikes.

Last week I took a break from overwhelming myself about the markets and the state of the economy. The timing wasn’t perfect, but I had personal reasons.

Before I start on the quest of exploring our present situation of the potententional…”ion”s I want to make sure we are on the same page. Therefore lets have a defining moment:

Money: Easily exchangeable, is relatively scarce, and is a store of value.

Inflation: An increase in the money supply
Deflation: A decrease in the money supply
Hyperinflation: A self-perpetuating unstoppable (more or less) state of inflation
Recession: A significant decline in business activity, mainly a contraction in the economy or slowing of growth
Depression: A long-term economic state characterized by unemployment and low prices and low levels of trade and investment
Stagflation: A period of time characterized by high inflation and recessionary conditions.

I’ve been looking at calls for the vaious scenarios and needed some clarification as to what happens in the various situations.  For the most part it seems obvious, but I’ve been struggling with the increase in the value of the United States dollar.  Our national debt is above 10 trillion and rising rapidly as the recent bailouts continue, and the most recent increase in military spending added another $612 billion that we have to pay for.

Why is the risk of deflation so frightening that the Fed, Treasury, governments, and foreign central banks will do anything to stave it off?  Deflation is like the grim reaper knocking on your door for a fiat currency.  A fiat currency survives on debt and inflation (credit expansion).  Too much inflation and it can become worthless, and negative inflation (deflation) and it gains value.  That sounds like a good thing but it isn’t.  As the currency gains in value debt becomes more expensive, and thus more difficult to pay off.  Imagine taking out a $100,000.00 loan with todays dollars and paying it off with dollars from 1930.  Good luck! During deflation prices also fall due to the decrease in the money supply and as there is no longer credit being handed out for people to use to consume and invest.  The whole system comes tumbling down and the reaper walks in the door to say hello!

When credit is created (a loan) that is an increase in the money supply, and when it is paid off that is a decrease in the money supply.  Say the loan is $100.00.  That is $100.00 of money put into existance with a very small percentage actually backing it.  Now I repay my $100.00 loan and that credit is erased and the money supply contracts.  This is the normal situation that occurs daily.  However, if people don’t want to lend or borrow then we have a problem.

No credit means no ability to borrow, which means no abilty to purchase goods and services.  Everything is based on debt today.  The change began in 1913 with the Fed, and the ultimate shift to fiat money was in 1972 during the Nixon presidency when we abandoned the gold standard and thus savers were punished from that day forward.

Okay this leads to me to the strengthening of the United States Dollar…  Why I ask is it getting stronger.  Many argue that it is because Europe is weakening, which may be part of the picture.  However, I read something that made a clear point that because European banks are required to hold dollars for various toxic debt they hold denominated in dollars they normally use the interbank markets based on the LIBOR rate.  However, that market is seized up and nobody wants to lend so they start using the EUR / USD credit swap market.  As they purchase dollars its value goes up.  Notice today that the Euro gained against the dollar when the Fed decided to start purchasing short-term commercial paper.  They are stepping in and becoming the new mainstay for that market: which one?  EVERY MARKET <Interesting…>

And tomorrow is a new day!

Fed inflating with no restraint – Hyperinflation?

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A picture is worth a trillion words…

 

Money Supply 09/25/2008

Money Supply 09/25/2008

Frankly I’m not surprise to see what the Fed is doing and can only imagine what this is going to look like if this bailout goes through.  There is a precedent throughout time that inflating the monetary supply only prolongs the inevitable.  This is a sad state of affairs and I see only troubled times ahead for the once mighty dollar.  Like the Romans who clipped their gold and silver coins the United States is creating more and more money from nothing.  Why do we need a bailout package when we can just print money?  It isn’t actually printed anymore, but issued through treasuries between the Fed, the Treasury, and private banks.  

We are headed towards a recession if we aren’t already in one.  Inflating the money supply while in a recession presumably means higher prices.  The contraction in prices we recently saw was perhaps a byproduct of the Fed contracting the money supply, which it has now reversed course.  During the Great Depression of 1929 many banks tried using their depositor’s money to help keep the market afloat just as the Fed is now doing… The outcome?  You know what happened…  

Now we are taking the opposite position and inflating.  What happened to Rome… and thanks to Mike Hewitt at dollardaze.org he lists many countries plagued by hyperinflation. 

  • Angola (1991-1999)
  • Argentina (1975-1991)
  • Austria (1921-1922)
  • Belarus (1994-2002)
  • Bolivia (1984-1986)
  • Brazil (1986-1994)
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina (1993)
  • Bulgaria (1991-1997)
  • Chile (1971-1973)
  • China (1939-1950)
  • Free City of Danzig (1923)
  • Ecuador (2000)
  • England
  • Greece (1944-1953)
  • France (1789-1797)
  • Georgia (1995)
  • Germany (1923-1924, 1945-1948)
  • Greece (1944-1953)
  • Hungary (1922-1924, 1944-1946)
  • Israel (1979-1985)
  • Japan (1944-1948)
  • Krajina (1993)
  • Madagascar (2004)
  • Mexico (2004)
  • Nicaragua (1987-1990)
  • Persian Empire (1294)
  • Peru (1984-1990)
  • Poland (1922-1924, 1990-1993)
  • Romania (2000-2005)
  • Ancient Rome
  • Russia (1921-1922, 1992-1994)
  • Taiwan (late-1940′s)
  • Turkey (1990′s)
  • Ukraine (1993-1995)
  • United States (1812-1814, 1861-1865)
  • Yap (late 1800′s)
  • Yugoslavia (1989-1994)
  • Zaire (1989-1996)
  • Zimbabwe (1999 – present)

The fiat money system that we presently have, which in its present form has only been in existence since 1971 when we went off the gold standard.  To say that we have a precedent for what may or may not happen is incorrect.  We are now in uncharted territory, however history has its lessons.

Ron Paul clearly states the situation…

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Fox News did a ten minute interview with Ron Paul and actually gave him the time to clearly state what is going on.  If the anchors were actually listening I don’t know, and frankly they need to.  The present situation is dire and people are only barely starting to take it seriously.  Given that Bernake is a student of the Great Depression he thinks the only way out is government intervention through bailouts and inflation.  The issue with that is we have a problem: Excess has built up in the system and it needs to be corrected.  By easing the debt burden on the banks the problem doesn’t go away, but only gets pushed further out into time.  

According to Austrian Economics whenever a bubble forms due to excess credit it must be deflated.  During the deflation excess inventory is bought at cheap prices, and the economy then moves forward.  This allows the economy to go though a minor correction and then move on.  The mortages need to be sold off and housing prices need to come down.  Our fiat monetary system only survives on debt and credit, which we are finding out has its limits.  

Instead of letting the system correct the taxpayer might be on the hook for other people’s mistakes.  Why is it imperative that house prices go back up?  Let them readjust to a point where people can afford them.  We will survive, and in the short-term it might be rough.  The dollar is at the brink of destruction.  A bailout will necessarily ensure that the dollar will be dumped because nobody wants to hold worthless paper.  

Warning:  If you see interest rates rising and the dollar falling this is a sign that major players are getting out of the dollar.  This is cause for concern.

Bernake, Paulson, and Bush are selling this proposal as a way to avoid a catastrophe. A necessary evil that if not enacted immediately will be the downfall of the United States and its citizens will suffer. Bush in his address to the nation did comment on the credit problem, but then went for the jugular and instilled fear just as Bernake and Paulson have been doing. He said that he believed in the free-market, but tough times call for decisive action. If he truly believed in the free market the Fed would not exist, there wouldn’t be sugar tariffs and corn subsidies, and I could go on and on. If you believe that we went into Iraq because of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction) then go ahead and believe him on this one.

I find it quite convenient that we have major swings in the stock market and then this proposal comes to light. The banking crisis isn’t something new. Its been going on for over a year, and why now must it be passed right before Congress goes to recess. Fear will induce irrationality and it is imperative that this bill does NOT pass. I would rather face major banks failing then have the government try to sort this out.

Watch this video it is right to the point!