Banks win with T.K.O!

If I had to place a bet on who would win… The major banks or the taxpayer… The BANKS win!!  Hooray the institution is saved!  Round after round of talks end in someone getting bailed out or should I say supported or prevented from failing so the whole economy doesn’t come tumbling down.  The markets seems to be happy with the results of the weekend’s coordinated world-wide effort to support the financial industry.  The Dow is presently up 585 points and we are green across the boards.  

However, treasuries are losing ground quickly and Jim Rogers is shorting them.  I took that position earlier, but was too early and also got out too early.  Live and learn right?  I plan to reestablish that plan shortly.  Additionally, I don’t see how this is the “bottom” of the current crisis.  At every point along this decline since last October every time there is intervention the market rallies and then continues in is downward trajectory.  

I’m not watching CNBC, but I imagine everyone is talking about how last week was bottom and we are off to the races.  For a bottom to be in place we needed much more despair and hatred towards the markets.  Regardless of the long-term outlook (just wait for earnings season to really kick in) there is no point swimming up a waterfall.  Therefore I closed out a large position of ultra short index ETFs.  My bias is still short, but I’m not going to be surprised if we see an intermediate rally followed by the final shit storm of destruction.  Remember the fundamentals haven’t changed, only the fact that the world’s leaders are trying to hold things together to avoid a complete collapse.  This weekend only restored confidence to get people lending to each other again, and to prevent runs on the banks.

And alas it’s my 30th Birthday!  What a month to have a birthday eh!  I couldn’t have asked for a more excited, and hairbrained ride…

Look at the Fed Goooooooooooooooooooooo

 

I found this on www.chrismartenson.com and couldn’t resist posting it here especially after my post about the dollar.  How the dollar is going to survive after this much cash is pushed into the system I really don’t know.  A inflationary depression seems to be looking more and more likely.  It would explain why gold is so scarce on the physical market.  People are losing faith in fiat currency and want hard currency that has some store of value.  Paper is easily printed, and as Voltaire said

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero”

Is it just me or is that line going almost STRAIGHT up.  If that isn’t a sign of complete and utter panic well I don’t know what is.  They are going to put as much liquidity into the system as possible.  Will this mean that you house will go back up in value?  Perhaps, but your purchasing power will decline severely.  Jim Rogers said the US currency is doomed, and I agree.  It is only a matter of when, and not if.

 

The US Dollar gaining? What?

Hyperinflation, inflation, deflation, depression, recession, stagflation… well which is it? I have no clue, but there is a massive monetary inflation occurring, and a looming recession.  Hmmm so does this mean a inflationary depression?  Yikes.

Last week I took a break from overwhelming myself about the markets and the state of the economy. The timing wasn’t perfect, but I had personal reasons.

Before I start on the quest of exploring our present situation of the potententional…”ion”s I want to make sure we are on the same page. Therefore lets have a defining moment:

Money: Easily exchangeable, is relatively scarce, and is a store of value.

Inflation: An increase in the money supply
Deflation:
A decrease in the money supply
Hyperinflation: A self-perpetuating unstoppable (more or less) state of inflation
Recession:
A significant decline in business activity, mainly a contraction in the economy or slowing of growth
Depression:
A long-term economic state characterized by unemployment and low prices and low levels of trade and investment
Stagflation:
A period of time characterized by high inflation and recessionary conditions.

I’ve been looking at calls for the vaious scenarios and needed some clarification as to what happens in the various situations.  For the most part it seems obvious, but I’ve been struggling with the increase in the value of the United States dollar.  Our national debt is above 10 trillion and rising rapidly as the recent bailouts continue, and the most recent increase in military spending added another $612 billion that we have to pay for.

Why is the risk of deflation so frightening that the Fed, Treasury, governments, and foreign central banks will do anything to stave it off?  Deflation is like the grim reaper knocking on your door for a fiat currency.  A fiat currency survives on debt and inflation (credit expansion).  Too much inflation and it can become worthless, and negative inflation (deflation) and it gains value.  That sounds like a good thing but it isn’t.  As the currency gains in value debt becomes more expensive, and thus more difficult to pay off.  Imagine taking out a $100,000.00 loan with todays dollars and paying it off with dollars from 1930.  Good luck! During deflation prices also fall due to the decrease in the money supply and as there is no longer credit being handed out for people to use to consume and invest.  The whole system comes tumbling down and the reaper walks in the door to say hello!

When credit is created (a loan) that is an increase in the money supply, and when it is paid off that is a decrease in the money supply.  Say the loan is $100.00.  That is $100.00 of money put into existance with a very small percentage actually backing it.  Now I repay my $100.00 loan and that credit is erased and the money supply contracts.  This is the normal situation that occurs daily.  However, if people don’t want to lend or borrow then we have a problem.

No credit means no ability to borrow, which means no abilty to purchase goods and services.  Everything is based on debt today.  The change began in 1913 with the Fed, and the ultimate shift to fiat money was in 1972 during the Nixon presidency when we abandoned the gold standard and thus savers were punished from that day forward.

Okay this leads to me to the strengthening of the United States Dollar…  Why I ask is it getting stronger.  Many argue that it is because Europe is weakening, which may be part of the picture.  However, I read something that made a clear point that because European banks are required to hold dollars for various toxic debt they hold denominated in dollars they normally use the interbank markets based on the LIBOR rate.  However, that market is seized up and nobody wants to lend so they start using the EUR / USD credit swap market.  As they purchase dollars its value goes up.  Notice today that the Euro gained against the dollar when the Fed decided to start purchasing short-term commercial paper.  They are stepping in and becoming the new mainstay for that market: which one?  EVERY MARKET <Interesting…>

And tomorrow is a new day!

CNBC says it perfectly

NASDAQ @ 2:43 pm

 

I have CNBC on in the background and between reading and watching the events unfold one of the anchors labeled the situation perfectly.

He essentially said that a close of 200 – 300 (in the DOW) points down won’t send a strong signal to everyone that there really is a crisis.  However, if the market closes down sharply then that will send the needed signal that something “MUST” be done.  We are being spoon fed a load of crap.  

This bill will probably eventually pass…  With the amount of panic and amount of “wealth” lost today I wonder if the level of support will start to shift from negative to positive.

CNBC is also saying that Barney Frank said that they were going to monitor the market’s reaction after the vote. So, lets go through the motions and see how the markets react to a no go on the bill and then if they freak out we can make sure it will pass on the second go around.

Anybody ever been to a musical, a play, or a performance of any kind?  Well, there are scenes and each is carefully planned out.  First you lay the ground work and setup the plot, then there is a climax, and a resolution.  I highly doubt we are even close to the climax, which means we have a long way to go laying the groundwork.

Force FED chickens…

Ironic that WaMu’s collapse happens to coincide perfectly with this bailout proposal trying to be hurriedly pushed through Congress.  It will for sure pass now <that was my take last night><now we are seeing major hiccups in the process (thankfully)>.  We have been sold out by various individuals in the United States Government.  Very unfortunate indeed, and some say the greatest looting operation ever in history.  Mark my word it isn’t over and will continue to spread to regional banks.  I find it interesting that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are the golden children in this whole mess, not to mention that Paulson used to be CEO of Goldman.  Coincidence?

In the EXTREME case you are going to want to have food and water on hand.  A decent supply.  I don’t know if it will get to that, but there is a lot of uncertainty in people’s minds.  When they are fearful they do stupid things.  Besides it never hurts to be prepared for an earthquake. I’m concerned about a run on the dollar starting abroad than at home.

Yes, I realize I sound like a doomsdayer, but  I’m just taking a pragmatic approach to the whole thing.  Show me some good news in this mess and I might be willing to alter my view slightly.
Has it occurred to you that we were fed the same crap with respect to going into Iraq about weapons of mass destruction?  This administration has been credited with being stupid, but I’m starting to wonder if that was all a line.  They have systematically destroyed the dollar, taken us to a never ending war – Iraq, allowed the credit bubble to get as big as it did, and in the end who gets to pay the bill?   The taxpayer.

And I’ll now step off my soapbox :)

-T

And don’t forget about Voltaire!

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero”

~ Voltaire – 1729

Fed inflating with no restraint – Hyperinflation?

A picture is worth a trillion words…

 

Money Supply 09/25/2008

Money Supply 09/25/2008

Frankly I’m not surprise to see what the Fed is doing and can only imagine what this is going to look like if this bailout goes through.  There is a precedent throughout time that inflating the monetary supply only prolongs the inevitable.  This is a sad state of affairs and I see only troubled times ahead for the once mighty dollar.  Like the Romans who clipped their gold and silver coins the United States is creating more and more money from nothing.  Why do we need a bailout package when we can just print money?  It isn’t actually printed anymore, but issued through treasuries between the Fed, the Treasury, and private banks.  

We are headed towards a recession if we aren’t already in one.  Inflating the money supply while in a recession presumably means higher prices.  The contraction in prices we recently saw was perhaps a byproduct of the Fed contracting the money supply, which it has now reversed course.  During the Great Depression of 1929 many banks tried using their depositor’s money to help keep the market afloat just as the Fed is now doing… The outcome?  You know what happened…  

Now we are taking the opposite position and inflating.  What happened to Rome… and thanks to Mike Hewitt at dollardaze.org he lists many countries plagued by hyperinflation. 

  • Angola (1991-1999)
  • Argentina (1975-1991)
  • Austria (1921-1922)
  • Belarus (1994-2002)
  • Bolivia (1984-1986)
  • Brazil (1986-1994)
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina (1993)
  • Bulgaria (1991-1997)
  • Chile (1971-1973)
  • China (1939-1950)
  • Free City of Danzig (1923)
  • Ecuador (2000)
  • England
  • Greece (1944-1953)
  • France (1789-1797)
  • Georgia (1995)
  • Germany (1923-1924, 1945-1948)
  • Greece (1944-1953)
  • Hungary (1922-1924, 1944-1946)
  • Israel (1979-1985)
  • Japan (1944-1948)
  • Krajina (1993)
  • Madagascar (2004)
  • Mexico (2004)
  • Nicaragua (1987-1990)
  • Persian Empire (1294)
  • Peru (1984-1990)
  • Poland (1922-1924, 1990-1993)
  • Romania (2000-2005)
  • Ancient Rome
  • Russia (1921-1922, 1992-1994)
  • Taiwan (late-1940′s)
  • Turkey (1990′s)
  • Ukraine (1993-1995)
  • United States (1812-1814, 1861-1865)
  • Yap (late 1800′s)
  • Yugoslavia (1989-1994)
  • Zaire (1989-1996)
  • Zimbabwe (1999 – present)

The fiat money system that we presently have, which in its present form has only been in existence since 1971 when we went off the gold standard.  To say that we have a precedent for what may or may not happen is incorrect.  We are now in uncharted territory, however history has its lessons.

Copperfield & Houdini for Presidency!

I’ve attended a few performances by David Copperfield and he has performed the unbelievable.  Before my very own eyes a group of thirty people vanished into thin air.  Where did they go?  I watched the unbelievable made real right in front of me.  How could this be an illusion created to fool me into belief?  I ask you… HOW?

David Copperfield and Harry Houdini would probably be a better pair to run the government at this point.  At least they would give us a good show.  The current officials in office make my gut wrench.  We have migrated from the land of the free to nationalization of private property in the name of free markets.  Whoa… okay let’s get something straight.  WE DO NOT HAVE FREE MARKETS… NOT EVEN CLOSE  

If we actually had a system that represented free markets the Federal Reserve (a PRIVATE bank made up of member banks that are also PRIVATE) would not exist, we would still be on the gold standard, and the government wouldn’t even consider a bailout of the taxpayer’s funding, and the United States Treasury would not be proposing this amazing relief package for those who are mainly responsible for getting us into this mess.  

So, I mentioned two masters of illusion… Why?  What is being pulled off at the moment is happening in front of our eyes and for some like me is atrocious.  However, for others they think it is essential to the integrity of financial markets, financial institutions, and YOUR house.  The entire bailout is being purported as a bailout for the helpless homeowner, the saver, the middle class.  

The problem is that nobody knows how much any of this debt is actually worth.  Say the government buys $700,000,000,000,000.00 worth of debt at $0.20 on the dollar, which is great discount.  If that debt is in reality worth less than that we have a problem.  When will these notes be paid back, and in what form are the notes?  

Chris Martenson managed to grab part of an article that later disappeared from Bloomberg that said:

“The Treasury’s thinking is to make it as big and wide as possible so they have the flexibility to act if need be,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which manages about $108 billion. “There have been losses on a whole range of U.S. debts and as the economy deteriorates in response to the housing slump those losses could escalate.” 

Treasury officials now propose buying what they term troubled assets, without specifying the type, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News and confirmed by a congressional aide.

This effectively means any type of debt.  Let’s take a moment to see what forms of debt exist:

  • Credit Card DEBT
  • Mortgage DEBT
  • Automobile DEBT
  • Bond DEBT

………. and the list goes on ………….

So, we have the United States government wanting to take on all this debt in the name of saving the financial markets.  Let’s just take the debt from the banks to clear up their balance sheets so they don’t have to write it off, which would cause them to have to increase their reserves because their assets are now below the minimum.  We could lower that further, but it has already been lowered to 3% of total assets.  That means they most likely loaned out the other 97%.  

As the Fed creates money our dollar is worth less and less.  Where is the Federal Government going to come up with $700 Billion dollars?  They will create it from nothing, which the Federal Reserve is great at doing.  Inflation will not solve the problem, only exacerbate it.  Newt Gingrich opposes it, and admits that if he is wrong in not supporting it that it is the lesser of two evils.  

If this bill passes please say goodbye to the dollar as we know it.  Foreigners might finally reach the breaking point to where they are afraid to purchase dollars and realize that buying them to keep their currency less expensive is futile.

Down with the dollar, manipulation everywhere….

I don’t know what to think about today. There was nothing normal about how the markets went about their day. Up down up down waaaaay up. And exactly when the market took off gold dove. There was a perfect inverse correlation between the two markets.

When gold gets too high this isn’t good for banks and especially the fed. It is a signal of losing confidence on the dollar, which is a piece of monopoly money that we are able to use as a medium of exchange.

For the whole fiat currency to continue to function there has to be debt and liquidity. Liquidy is drying up as banks don’t want to lend to eachother. Nobody knows for sure who is the next in a series of falling dominoes. With the Fed injecting over 100billion dollars into the system last night our dollar is looking ripe for a major devaluation.

I’m off to Newport Beach today for a real estate seminar led by John Schaub. It should be interesting and I’m excited to learn something new and get my mind off the rapidly deteriorating economy.

Bernake admits financials out of control…

In an article from the Chicago Tribune

“We have lost control,” said Hale, quoting Bernanke. “We cannot stabilize the dollar. We cannot control commodity prices.”

Hale is an economist who had a private meeting with Ben Bernanke several months ago. Now, we are finally feeling the full effect of the loss of control.

I really hope that many of you have hedged your portfolios already or gotten out of the markets. The dollar is next unless perhaps interest rates are raised as an emergency measure to prevent the fallout. Expect housing prices to continue their descent as liquidity evaporates.

The banking system is insolvent.

Stocks for the LONG LONG LONG term

“The best therapeutic move for long-term investors is to turn off your TV so as not to get caught up in all of the sensational headlines. The stock market has been and will continue to be the best source for wealth creation over the long-term.”

–Patrick J O’Hare, Briefing.com

I love hearing that the stock market for the long term is the way to make money. Close your eyes and prey. Whoa… Did you close your eyes and watch the money flow into your pockets when you labored every day for what you have invested?

What happens if you are in individual stocks and some of them go bankrupt? The indices adjust and find another company to take the failed ones place. Yes, the market has gone up in the long term, but what if you invested at one of the tops before the crash and had to wait 16 years to get your money back? I don’t know about you but I’d rather sit on the sidelines and wait it out. There are ways to see the hurricane of in the distance, but if you are unwilling or unable it will hit you.

When Columbus was making landfall the natives didn’t see his ships because they weren’t part of their reality. If we can’t adjust our thoughts to accept something new or different then how are we going to prepare for a possible change of future direction?

Read the following article… There is a grim reality facing us all. Investment banks have used up their ability to lend to businesses. Considering that the growth of our economy depends on the ability of credit we are facing a MAJOR did I say MAJOR issue in front of us.

Money Central Article

I’m also hearing local news radio having discussions about what to do with your money to keep it safe. Last night I heard someone saying that this is the time to start thinking about buying. Sure there is the old adage that when there is blood in the streets buy. When if the blood is only at a trickle when it will be a river?