Tag Archives: speculators

Why Gold?

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I agree that we are probably going to see a continued decline in commodity prices especially PMs.  However, given the increases in the monetary supply I forsee this trend reversing.  When the trend reverses, which isn’t going to happen immediately because we are headed towards a major recession, with unemployment rising, and more likely interest rates as well, inflation will be severe.

The Money Supply graphs are frightening.  Once that money goes into the system I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see hyperinflation.   For all of our sakes I don’t want that to happen.

As for investing in PMs I think there are two types of people who purchase them.  The first is the speculator, and the other the long term purchaser regardless of price. (I’m leaving out purchasers for industry and jewelry).  As much as I don’t like to see the value in relation to fiat currency of my PMs decline my intent on owning them is for more of the oh shit situation.   Throughout time gold, and silver to a lesser degree have held up as a store of value.  They aren’t going to be worthless as can a paper currency backed by nothing. Politicians and those involved in the government don’t like PMs as they aren’t easily created.  Having a currency backed by a scarce resource means that they have to control spending as they can’t print money to pay for various expenditures.

So, why gold and silver?  What happens if the fiat currency fails?  All of a sudden you and I have a bunch of roman numerals in our bank accounts.  Sure we can go get paper currency, but it is better to use as heat.  If this happens chaos will ensue until another solution is created or we go back to a currency backed by PMs.  I doubt the latter case would occur as bureaucrats aren’t going to want that option. 

My other concern is war with Iran, which is looking more and more likely.  In this scenario gold and oil will skyrocket.  Oil will also be much harder to obtain and the government will probably institute a rationing scheme instead of letting the price rise.   I’d rather pay $50.00 a gallon for gas then not be able to get it or to have to wait in line for days.  I presume many of you don’t agree, but gas or no gas you pick!  Would I drive much NO… however, if I needed to go somewhere I could get the fuel I needed.   

Lastely, beyond Gold and Oil we all need food and water.  Don’t forget food.

 

-T 

GDP growth 3.3% annually? Up from 1.9%? Right…

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GDP cries foul!

When the numbers emerged today I was shocked. After my initial amazement sunk in I started to wonder what was “really” going on here…

My eighth grade science teacher (yes 8th grade was a long time ago) managed to prove through statistics that I and everyone else in the class didn’t exist. Fishy indeed! If I didn’t exist according to statistics, but was still sitting in the classroom with the other student and the teacher himself then one of two things were completely incorrect. One might have been an illusion (think The Matrix)… Well, we know it was the stats because I’m sitting at my computer writing this entry.

So, if we can prove something doesn’t exist through statistics, which are really just a mathematical representation of data, can we manipulate our results through statistics?

I highly doubt that the GDP is actually positive. Take a look at shadowstats.com, which undoes as much of the governmental massaging of the numbers as possible. At the moment we are actually at about a 9% annualized rate of inflation, and GDP is negative. Wait, GDP was just shown to be 3.3% annualized… again what does this all mean?

What recession?

We aren’t in a recession or at least that is the official figure. Of course we aren’t because to be in a recession requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Remember: We are in an election year! Interestingly according to shadowstats.com, we have had a negative GD since 2004.

I’m just skimming the surface and attempting to draw to your attention that what you see isn’t necessarily what you get. We are in a recession, and have been in a recession for quite some time now. However, the government wants us to believe that everything is okay, and that the economy will recover. My fear is that all this manipulation will lead to an even larger bust.

Look around you… are you seeing more for-sale signs of homes, more for-lease signs around town, people shopping less, more concerned about their jobs, etc…? These are not signs of economic growth, but fear.

So what?

Let’s make a prediction as these are always fun. If I’m right I get to stroke my ego a bit, and if I’m wrong… well I’m wrong.

The manipulation will continue as long as possible, but the market will prevail. Once it realizes the degree of major contraction in growth and productivity people’s sentiment will further shift as it is starting to now. Spending will dry up, credit won’t be lent, defaults will further, housing will keep falling, the US stock markets will free-fall, the dollar will resume its decline, and gold, silver, and commodities will eventually resume their bull market. Wow that is a mouthful. Might I be wrong…? Of course! If I could predict the future I would own an island and call it Gauntlett.

The election…

I’m going to go as far as to say that our markets are severely manipulated NOT by speculators, but by various government officials and policy. Going into the election with a perceived strong economy will give the incumbent’s party an edge that just might help them stay in office. We will know in November. After November the Fed won’t need to have such a loose monetary policy and might start to think about inflation and raise interest rates if the market doesn’t demand it sooner due to the risk of inflation to your savings and purchasing power. (Note: I didn’t say higher prices because what is really happening is your dollars are becoming worth less as more are put into circulation by the Fed.)

Double Standards

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I’m pissed to say the least…  First Bear Stearns and now the Macs.  Why do I as a taxpayer get the privilege of helping these overextended companies stay in business?  It is bad enough that the Fed keeps “printing” money, which keeps the interest rate low and provides liquidity to an illiquid financial industry.  Each time they inject money into the system they are effectively stealing from each and everyone of us who holds US dollars.  

My original intent in this entry is to write about the gold standard… well, actually the lack of it.  Ever since we have been off the gold standard interest rates have swung wildly, and the boom / bust of the economy much more severe.  

When the “tech bubble” popped in 2000 interest rates were lowered (money supply increased) and it did nothing to prop of the tech market, but went to the housing market, which is now in drastic decline.  

The fed is what we need to be talking about in the news.  Instead people in the media are talking about speculators and manipulation of markets.  Today the SEC is preventing naked shorts on financial stocks.  Well, why do people short a equity in the first place?  Answer: They think it is going to drop in value.  Is there a reason financials are dropping in value?  YES  So, instead of looking at how we got to this point we are going to find a scapegoat (speculators) and continue what has been done over and over again.  What new regulations will be in place after all this is over?  Will the US gov’t now be in the housing and banking industries?  So, if automakers start to fail is the fed going to open the discount window to them as well?  As a taxpayer I’m excited to be loaning money to failing companies.