Financial Vagabond

Hold your hats folks as here are some of the forecasts for 2009 (link): GDP falling by 2.2% Slow recovery in 2010 > 9% unemployment by 2010 Decline in inflation (hmmmm… if monetary policy says anything this will reverse or at least eventually destroy the dollar) Continued decline in housing prices Decline in real consumption [...]

If my emotional barometer is any indication of where people’s minds are at the moment then I can only label it as coming down or recovering from a major hangover. It is the Sunday afternoon after a big night out sipping on your bloody mary to ease the pain. We have been living on credit and tons [...]

The theory was beautiful (well in the abstract)… Give troubled banks more credit and they will lend it out and the economy will stop its free-fall.  Now, that sounds like utopia to me.  Create credit and we will all be saved for unemployement, slowing production, decreased consumer spending, and rising interest rates. HOLD ON… let’s [...]

I received an email from a friend and here is my response.  You ought to be able to decipher what the questions were about.  These are my opinions of the present situation, and are by no means recommendations.   —- 1) Voting for McCain… I really don’t think voting for A or B is going [...]

It seems that the tune to march to these days is credit o credit we need more credit.  Somehow somewhere we forgot quite quickly that credit got us into this mess.  If credit is expanding much faster than real economic growth the outcome will be instability in the economy.  That is like an individual taking [...]

I agree that we are probably going to see a continued decline in commodity prices especially PMs.  However, given the increases in the monetary supply I forsee this trend reversing.  When the trend reverses, which isn’t going to happen immediately because we are headed towards a major recession, with unemployment rising, and more likely interest rates as well, inflation [...]

Hyperinflation, inflation, deflation, depression, recession, stagflation… well which is it? I have no clue, but there is a massive monetary inflation occurring, and a looming recession.  Hmmm so does this mean a inflationary depression?  Yikes. Last week I took a break from overwhelming myself about the markets and the state of the economy. The timing wasn’t [...]

I’m attempting to grapple everything going on apart from my disgust… and come up with a couple scenarios. Any help will be appreciated. Overall economic trend: – Economy is sliding deeper into a recession – Housing prices continue to fall – The dollar’s short-term value is undecided, and long term looking weak – Unemployment rising [...]